How likely is a new war in the Caucasus?

PanARMENIAN.Net - World Mass Media seriously discuss the possibility of a new war in the Caucasus between Georgia and Russia. However, neither U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice nor "allies of the Secretary-General of UN" (Russia, USA, France, Great Britain and Germany) can help the situation; Georgia and Russia are exchanging assaults, thus increasing the threat of war in the region. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice rebuked Russia for its efforts to destabilize situation in the Region and arrived in Tbilisi either to show Washington's support for Georgia or to withhold further steps on the part of Russia. If we believe President of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia Sergey Bagapsh, Georgia, in its turn, is planning an invasion into Abkhazia. "Several terrorist acts proved once again that autonomy under Georgian rule is unacceptable," he declared.

Meanwhile, according to the "Financial Times", Russia admitted it had sent aircraft flying over Georgia. On July 10 Official Moscow acknowledged its fighters had been flying over South Ossetia shortly before U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in Tbilisi to show Washington's support to Georgia. In the course of Russian-Georgian enmity it is the first time Russia has confessed the fact, though Georgia had not once accused its enemy of sending aircraft to its territory. "The statement of the RF Foreign Ministry is just another aggravation of conflict in which Russia backs South Ossetia and Abkhazia partly to put pressure on Pro-Western President of Georgia Mikhail Saakashvili and to block Georgia's efforts to join NATO," analysts note.

American officials accompanying Ms. Rice noted that Washington insists on entering into negotiations about the Georgian-Ossetian conflict with the attendance of the USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, Germany, Georgia, as well as Abkhazian separatists. However, the officials disclosed no further details. In his turn, RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that regulation of conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia might come to a fullstop in case Georgia joined the NATO Membership Action Plan.

At the joint conference in Tbilisi U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called to Russia for contributing to a peaceful settlement of the conflict. "Russia must settle the conflict instead of stimulating it. Violence should be put an end to, no matter who its initiator is," declared Ms. Rice with disapproval. Saakashvili too had his share in Rice's criticism.

Georgia plays too significant a role for Russia and the latter cannot simply offer it to NATO. Moscow will make every effort and even use force, if necessary. It has a powerful means it has been so often using against Europe - blackmail of energy supply. Under current circumstances it is a most effective weapon. Georgia's position is highly undesirable; in supply of gas it can rely neither on Azerbaijan nor on Iran, since the latter will never confront with Russia for Tbilisi. Russia also has another reason to struggle for Georgia. The latter is at the turn of three powerful countries: Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. So, Russia cannot possibly let it join NATO.

In all probability Tbilisi will struggle to the end, hoping the USA will never leave it face to face with Russia. Fate of the whole region might depend on the final result of confrontation between Russia and Georgia.
Meanwhile Georgia withdraws from the joint control commission (JCC) for Georgian-South Ossetian conflict regulation. "In connection with aggravation of situation in the conflict zone Russia proposed a meeting of JCC Co-chairs in Moscow at the end of July. The Co-chairs could discuss measures of confidence together with the issue of the Russian peacekeepers' withdrawal from the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict zone. The initiative was welcomed by all the parties, except Georgia," informed Yuri Popov, Ambassador at Large of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Official Tbilisi has not once declared its negative attitude towards the JCC and its activity, and insists on changing the format of negotiations.