The struggle between Kemalists and Islamists in Turkey may collapse the state

PanARMENIAN.Net - It should be noted that this Islam, however, has nothing in common with the radical Shias, but, who can be sure that this very fact won't make it more dangerous. The slow, but accurate settlement of Europe with the Turks indicates that sooner or later the Christian world will have to admit the fact that not Turkey became part of Europe, but quite the contrary. Let us add to this also the demographic factor, and everything will fall into place. However, the situation is not so terrible after all: the internal political events of the past two years indicate that the struggle between Kemalists and Islamists has not yet ended, and no one can predict the exact conclusion of it. The trial on Ergenekon, to which the government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan attempts to pin the army, may develop into a process in which there'll be no winners. On the one hand, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) strives into Europe, on the other hand, it is eager to secure itself with the absolute support of the 70-million population for final regulation of the Kurdish question like the Armenian one, about which we have been repeatedly writing. But, the country cannot do without the army, and it means Erdoğan will not be able to finally dismiss the Joint Staff, i.e. to change the constitution. It is even possible that he'll suffer the same fate as Menderes did; servicemen in Turkey do not like jokes…

Against this background the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations seems difficult or even unattainable a concern, in spite of the statements of ministers and experts, to say nothing of NGOs and media outlets. The Armenian question once was the indirect reason for the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but history has a habit of repeating itself and not always in the form of farce. Ankara perfectly understands that after the Armenian issue she will have to solve the Cyprus and Kurdish questions as well, to say nothing of fulfillment of obligations before Europe in some part of reforms, which simply do not reach eastern provinces because of needlessness of the afore-mentioned. But these issues seemed to be little, and Turkey, on Azerbaijan's advice, decided to undertake also the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, which in a wider sense is in no way necessary to her. The slogan "one nation, two states" proved to be a time bomb, placed by Heydar Aliyev for the sole purpose of ensuring his son at least one ally in the region. But even this may work against Baku. Real diplomacy has very little in common with the factual statements of foreign ministers of any of the countries in the region. Especially because the pressure of EU and the USA on Turkey for opening the border with Armenia has recently been increased both by the European Union and the USA. Russia thus far remains neutral, but if the closed boundary begins to interfere with the imperial ambitions of Moscow, it may behave like the USA and Europe. Azerbaijan will instantly turn her back on Ankara and will be carrying out Gazprom's immediate orders. Paraphrasing the popular saying, we can say: "What is good for Gazprom is good for Russia".

As far as the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations is concerned, advancement can be outlined in this issue judging by the publications in the Turkish media outlets. According to Egemen Bagis, Minister of State of Turkey and Chief negotiator on the integration of Turkey into the EU, the reconstruction of the Armenian Church on Akhtamar Island will be accomplished before Serzh Sargsyan's arrival in Turkey and a cross will be inaugurated on the church. "Why not? In fact Islam respects all religions. If Europe does not put any bans on opening mosques, why should we do so? Besides, this church will attract pilgrim Armenians here, what will help to develop tourism in this region. Closed borders are the vestige of communism and we must struggle them. It was Stalin who loved keeping boundaries under lock and key; why should we follow him? We say Greeks are bad, Kurds are bad too. How long will we be at loggerheads? We should put an end to animosity." Bagis declared. Whether this statement will be put into effect is difficult to say. The fact is that very little time is left until October 14 and if the border is not opened, the President of Armenia simply will not attend the return football match between the Armenian and Turkish national football teams. "I will attend the return match only in case the Armenian-Turkish border is opened or the sides are on the threshold of unblocking Armenia," declared President Sargsyan in Yerevan, during a joint press conference with his Serbian counterpart Boris Tadic. "There is little time left till the match. We expect Turkey to take constructive steps towards normalization of relations," stated Sargsyan.

In his turn, director of the RA NAS Institute of Oriental Studies, Professor Ruben Safrastyan considers that Turkey's decision to inaugurate a cross on Surb Khach (St. Cross) Armenian Church on Akhtamar Island doesn't imply any change of Ankara's position. "The church will be reconstructed but inauguration of a cross on it sounds unrealistic. It may arouse Muslims' displeasure. Intolerance towards other religious is growing in Turkey. This country's religious policy is still anti-Christian," notes Safrastyan.

At the same time, Professor at Istanbul University Bilgi Turgut Tuncel noted that Turkey and Armenia are engaged in a belated process of mutual acquaintance and communication. "To reach accomplishment, both sides have to pay great attention to the sensitivities of the other side. One of the psychological barriers for Armenians is the feeling of being ignored and disregarded by the Turks or the Turkish State. Turks and the Turkish State must realize this situation and take the necessary measures to show that Armenians are not ignored by them," Tuncel noted. In his view, it must be recognized that Armenians lived and still live in Anatolia. The hostile and insulting rhetoric prevalent in school textbooks and popular media must be stopped, and the Armenian cultural heritage in Anatolia should be respected. "Accordingly, recognition of the Armenian remnants in Anatolia as Armenian vestiges and renovating them as cultural heritage of Anatolia is of major importance. In this way, Turkey not only can show Armenians that she respects the Armenian nation, but will also provide the younger Turkish generation with a truthful historical consciousness," he said.