World has not changed, it is only a leap year

PanARMENIAN.Net - Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the definition “Arab spring” is not so correct. According to political analyst Sergei Markedonov, the wave of mass protests began not in spring, but in winter, and it was in Tunisia in December 2010, after the self-immolation of Mohamed Bouazizi in protest against corruption and tyranny. “Not all the protesters identified themselves as Arabs. In view of consequences, the Middle East events of 2011 go far beyond a given region. The U.S., EU, Russia, and international organizations (the League of Arab States, UN, NATO) were all involved in the resolution of acute problems of the Middle East. For all the formal resemblance, the story of “awakening” in every single Middle Eastern country is unique in itself because of its singular ethnic and religious composition, foreign policy, social and economic development,” Markedonov said. So, the world will long continue to disentangle the Middle East “story”.

Among recent developments was Egypt’s prosecutor’s demand of death penalty for ex-President Hosni Mubarak. However, this demand was opposed by France, Russia and the United States. If after all Mubarak is sentenced to death by hanging, this act will add nothing to the “Muslim Brotherhood”, except for condemnation and possible obstruction by the world community. Let us not forget that Egypt was literally sitting on the “American needle” of subsidy and support. If the U.S. should be replaced by “Al Qaeda”, the case could end up with a second Iraq or Afghanistan.

The new year also marked the change of PACE president. On January 23 there expires the term of office of PACE President Movlud Cavusoglu. The two years spent by the Turkish deputy from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are unlikely to have added respect and prestige to the PACE, taking into account the Chairman’s fringe intervention in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In an interview to the radio station “Voice of Turkey” Cavusoglu said that during his presidency in the PACE “The organization launched a struggle against dramatically increasing tendencies of racism and xenophobia in Europe as a threat which cannot be underestimated.” It is not difficult to guess what the Turkish deputy meant under racism and xenophobia in Europe. It is the anti-Islamic and anti-Turkish sentiments in some European countries, where the dominance of Muslims looms large. For 2 years Cavusoglu unsuccessfully tried to push forward the idea of ​​resuming the work of PACE Subcommittee on Nagorno-Karabakh. His successor, vice-president of the European People’s Party, Frenchman Jean-Claude Mignon is unlikely to insist on resolving the Karabakh conflict within the framework of PACE, as it’s not a prerogative of the organization.

The French Senate is to consider the bill criminalizing denial of Armenian Genocide passed by the lower house of Parliament. If the Senate approves (and in all likelihood so will it be), there will remain only one little thing - the signature of President Sarkozy. Here, perhaps, it’s worth noting that the votes of Armenian community cannot significantly affect the outcome of presidential election - after all, it is about 200 thousand votes against tens of millions. That is, it’s not just about the pre-election campaign, but also about Turkey, which Nicolas Sarkozy is going to once again cut down to size.

This year presidential elections will be held in co-chair countries of OSCE Minsk Group. But they will change nothing, despite the hopes of some experts that are very far from the real levers of power capable to facilitate progress in resolving the Karabakh conflict. As we have already mentioned, foreign policy of world powers proceeds not from the president’s personality, but solely from the interests of the state. In this regard quite indicative were the Turkish parliamentary elections of 2011, when only a few expected normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. This story ended up with the Zurich protocols being returned to Turkish Parliament with little hope for ratification.

This year there may be held another meeting between the religious leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan - Catholicos of All Armenians Garegin II and Head of the Muslim Spiritual Administration Sheikh-ul-Islam Allahshukur Pashazade on a “neutral” territory, i.e. on the Azerbaijani - Nagorno-Karabakh border. Hardly is it possible that this meeting be an impetus for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. However, such initiatives are useful at least for Azerbaijan to see with her own eyes that she has lost NKR forever and permanently.

Azerbaijan is getting ready for work in the UN Security Council, cherishing the pipe dream of changing the format of talks on Karabakh. However, the major issues on the agenda of the Security Council are Syria and the Iranian nuclear problem, and also the co-chairing countries with veto power. But, as always, Baku will be misleading her own people, declaring another “diplomatic victory over the Armenians”. Aside from that it’s a common year, only a leap year, and for some reason this extra day always comes inopportunely, which gives a handle to astrologers to make predictions that have nothing to do even with fantasy.