Armenian GDP growth to slow in 2015, report says

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Armenian real GDP growth will slow in 2015 on the back of declining export demand from Russia, as well as stagnating remittance growth, a key driver of private consumption, Fast Market Research says in Caucasus Business Forecast Report Q4 2014.

“With Armenia set to join the Eurasian Economic Union on January 1, 2015 we believe the economy will remain heavily reliant on Russian support over the coming years,” the report says.

Despite an escalation in violence along the contact line between the armed forces of the Nagorno Karabakh (Artsakh) Republic and Azerbaijan, the authors say “it is not part of our core scenario to see the outbreak of a widespread military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

“The key powers in the region (Armenia-supporting Russia and Azerbaijan-supporting Turkey) are unlikely to favor an outbreak of conflict on their southern and eastern flanks respectively,” the report notes.

With Armenia set to join the Eurasian Economic Union on January 1 2015, the economy will remain heavily reliant on Russian support over the coming years, the authors believe.

On the back of robust growth in H114 and positive leading indicators we have revised up our real GDP growth forecasts for Georgia in 2014 and 2015, from 3.4% and 4.1% to 4.4% and 4.2% respectively. The authors expect growth to slow in 2015 from 2014 as growth in exports to Russia slows on the back of Moscow discontinuing a free trade agreement in retribution for Georgia deepening its ties with the EU.

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information, which represents the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. The Caucasus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.