Expert: Azeri attempt to shoot down NKR-bound planes will lead to war

PanARMENIAN.Net - Azeri attempt to shoot down Kabakh-bound planes will result in a partial international isolation for the former, a Russian analyst said.

"Even a single shot-down plane will immediately escalate the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, where Russia, while not openly supporting Armenia, will surely not back Azerbaijan," Ivan Sukhov said.

"Baku will also be wrong to count on the West's support. In the event of a war against Iran, the South Caucasus will be utterly destabilized with no winning sides left. The West, in pursuit of personal interests with Armenia, can't guarantee the return of Karabakh and adjacent territories to Azerbaijan. Turkey might back the return of territories; however, neither the EU nor the U.S. would wish for Ankara's increased influence. Baku might have a better chance should Ankara win in a struggle for the influence in South Caucasus. But even then, it would be highly unwise for Ankara not to consider Armenia's interests," the analyst said.

"Baku's siding with West in attacking Iran would be catastophic for the former. A strike on Iran's side is also possible. Less probable but still feasible is Armenia's attack or the escalation of Karabakh conflict, with an increased refugee inflow that Baku will definitely be unable to handle," vesti.az quoted the expert as saying.