August 11, 2014 - 16:45 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - The recent tensions at the line of contact between the Nagorno Karabakh (Artsakh) Republic and Azerbaijani armed forces and the Armenian-Azeri border can be explained by two factors, a Russian expert said.
“On the one hand, Azerbaijan’s aggression is an order from outside aiming to destabilize the South Caucasus. The Aliyev clan is integrated into the conditional ‘western colony club’ and has accounts, projects and other affairs abroad. That’s why some hints are enough to start escalation,” Denis Dvornikov told PanARMENIAN.Net
The second factor, according to him, is that Aliyev has become a hostage to his own bellicose rhetoric. “Armenophobia is a jinn which can ‘bite’ Aliyev if he stop demonstrating his intolerance towards Armenia,” Dvornikov said.
“The meeting in Sochi proved that the nonsense Aliyev usually tells his public doesn’t bear repeating. Getting ready for the trilateral meeting, the Azerbaijani leader knew that in the presence of the Russian and Armenian Presidents as well as numerous journalists and international observers he had better position himself as a peace-loving and law-abiding politician. Such an image, although quite comfortable for himself, is not acceptable for his voters, who are stuffed with hatred. That’s why the bloody incidents at the line of contact are a kind of sacrifice to gain domestic approval,” he added.
According to the expert, the situation will stabilize little by little. “Aliyev will have to show that he is not dancing to Moscow's tune. That’s why provocations will continue for some more time and then subside,” he explained.
Dvornikov believes that there will be no large-scale hostilities. “First, Aliyev is clever enough to understand that his western partners can involve him in a slaughter and then step aside. He also understands that as long as he is tolerated by Moscow, his regime is safe. Besides, with launching a new war he risks leaving all of his expensive weaponry to Karabakh while the damaged infrastructure will bring Azerbaijan back to its beginnings,” he said.