Singapore scientists cancel Covid-19 prognosis for ArmeniaMay 11, 2020 - 14:14 AMT PanARMENIAN.Net - Scientists from the Singapore University of Technology and Design have announced that their prediction that the coronavirus outbreak in Armenia will end in August is no longer valid. The researchers have removed all the graphs and charts for various countries from their website and offered to see forecasts by other centers. “Covid-19 predictions are fundamentally important for rationalizing planning and mentality, but also challenging due to the innate uncertainty of the complex, dynamic and global pandemic as a typical wicked problem,” researchers said. “Traditional prediction or forecasting efforts, which aim to make an accurate prediction now to come true in the future, might be misleading in this context of extreme uncertainty. Here, to deal with uncertainty, we had experimented predictive monitoring of the epidemic life cycle curves together with accumulating actual data, to capture changes in the continually-made predictions, which would be traditionally viewed as bad or proof of failure of a prediction model, and make sense such changes as meaningful signals of uncertainty and changes in the real-world scenarios. In turn, such signals from the predicted theoretical future may inform, initiate, and guide actions now to influence the real future. Motivation, theory, method, cases, and caution are in this paper.” There are now more than 4.1 million cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide, including over 1.4 million recoveries so far, according to Johns Hopkins University, which is tracking figures from the World Health Organization and additional sources. Since the beginning of the outbreak, more than 282,000 people have died globally from Covid-19 complications. Top stories Six total incidents have burned 19 old-growth trees. Friday night 8 trees were torched along the beautiful main entrance. The EU does not intend to conduct military exercises with Armenia, Lead Spokesperson for EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Peter Stano says. Hikmet Hajiyev has said that there is no place for USAID operation in Azerbaijan any longer. A telephone conversation between Putin and Pashinyan before the CSTO summit is not planned, Peskov says. Partner news | Ex-Karabakh leader moved to solitary confinement cell in Baku, his son says David Vardanyan is the son of former Karabakh leader Ruben Vardanyan who who is currently imprisoned in Azerbaijan. Freedom House concerned by mounting reports of police violence in Armenia Freedom House urged Armenian authorities to investigate this pattern of excessive force and inhumane treatment. Ex-President: Only removal of “defeatist” rulers can save Armenia Former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has shared a message on the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. Pashinyan: We must stop searching for homeland, we have found that homeland Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has shared a message on the 109th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. |