Jamestown Foundation: Vitaly Balasanyan, Karabakh’s strongman-in-waiting

PanARMENIAN.Net - The Jamestown Foundation has published an article about Vitaly Balasanyan, the new secretary of Nagorno-Karabakh's Security Council, who the foundation says is on track to become president.

After Balasanyan was appointed in the post, Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan said all decisions related to defense and security affairs are henceforth transferred into the Artsakh Security Council’s competency. He is now deemed the most powerful office holder in Karabakh’s opaque internal politics, the article says.

Balasanyan is closely aligned politically with Armenia’s former heads of state Robert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan (presidents in 1998–2008 and 2008–2018, respectively; both native to Karabakh). Their antagonism toward Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia’s current prime minister, dates back to at least 2008, did not abate after the 2018 regime change, and gained strength after Pashinyan led Armenia (along with Karabakh) into the recent, lost war.

The foundation says Balasanyan has now adopted a quasi-autonomist stance vis-à-vis Yerevan, emphasizing Karabakh’s own interests and decision-making rights. He intends for Karabakh not only to retain its panoply of military structures but to augment and upgrade them. The local army (labeled as the “Karabakh Defense Forces”) would introduce a new reserve training and mobilization system on two levels: for combat troops and for militias (the former to be paid for the time spent in training). He would increase the special forces, with a view to conducting “anti-terror” operations; and he would establish border troops for Karabakh (it does not have them as a distinct branch at present).

"Balasanyan’s political prospects depend largely on Russia, which has taken over from Armenia the role of Karabakh’s security guarantor and socio-economic benefactor as a result of the recent war, with troops in place (see EDM, December 8, 10, 2020). Russia is unlikely to endorse a revanche-seeking local leader who would jeopardize the armistice and the whole postwar order that Moscow envisages for the region. Russia is interested in sealing, not reversing, the new status quo after the 44-day war, including Armenia’s weakness in defeat, which has maximized its dependence on Russia. The Kremlin relies on Pashinyan’s weak, discredited government to deliver compliance with the armistice terms and with Moscow’s interests generally," the foundation concludes.