Kazan meeting: beating the air

Kazan meeting: beating the air

PanARMENIAN.Net - The long-awaited talks between the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian Presidents took place in the Russian city of Kazan on June 24.

The meeting was eyed as an opportunity to fix considerable progress on the way to the conflict resolution. Prior to it, U.S. President Barack Obama made phone calls to Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to say that “the moment has come for all the sides to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to take a decisive step towards a peaceful settlement.”

“There are moment when leaders should show courage, wisdom and the way to peace. Personally I, as a friend of yours, and France, as a friendly country for Armenia, wish your success in this landmark meeting. Our country will spare no effort to support you on this path,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in a letter he addressed to Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan.

“The meeting is designed to serve as a landmark in Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. We expect Baku and Yerevan to react constructively on the joint statement made on May 26 in Deauville by the Presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries, which contains a call upon the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to demonstrate political will and finalize the basic principles (of a peace agreement) during the forthcoming summit in June,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

However, despite optimistic forecasts and encouragement, the anticipated meeting ended in a statement saying that the heads of state “noted the reaching of mutual understanding on a number of questions, whose resolution helps create conditions to approve the basic principles."

The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan praised the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries for their continuous attention to the problem and once again thanked Russian President for his personal endeavors to bring the positions of the conflicting sides closer. Nevertheless, the meeting in Kazan proved to be just beating the air.

Despite various opinions in Armenia and Azerbaijan, the result of the meeting was quite expected by Artsakh, whose officials were certain that on the threshold of elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, France and the United States, the Presidents will not go beyond a regular statement pledging to continue talks that will help alleviate tensions a bit. However, to be on the safe side, Stepanakert warned that it will not accept any document signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, since the only way to establish lasting peace in the region is the engagement of NKR in talks and recognition of the republic's independence. Artsakh just called on participant s of the Kazan meeting “to display political will.”

What about Kazan? Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian has explained why no agreement was reached. “When addressing the PACE plenary meeting recently, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that progress may be registered during the Kazan meeting in case Azerbaijan doesn't put forth new proposals regarding the settlement. The June 24 meeting was not a breakthrough, as Azerbaijan proved unready to accept the final version of the basic principles suggested by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs. Instead, the Azerbaijani leader attempted to impose 10 new proposals, thus precluding the possibility of any agreement on the issue. It's not for the first time that Azerbaijan prevents a possibility to reach an agreement. Nevertheless, we will continue talks, as there is no other way to resolve the Karabakh conflict,” he said.

The scenario was predictable, taking into consideration the fact that any progress in Karabakh talks can shake the presidency of Ilham Aliyev, who has for many years fed his people with promises “to launch a new war and take Karabakh back.”

Meanwhile, Aliyev may have to pay dearly for the failure of the Kazan meeting. It's worth remembering the joint statement Sarkozy, Obama and Medvedev issued in Deauville. “The use of force created the current situation of confrontation and instability. Its use again would only bring more suffering and devastation, and would be condemned by the international community. We strongly urge the leaders of the sides to prepare their populations for peace, not war,” the Presidents said, in part.

As to Azerbaijan, the country seems to be pleased with the result of the meeting, which creates ground for future talks. Azeri officials describe Aliyev's behavior as “demonstration of diplomatic, moral and personal superiority” of their leader.

Armenia doesn't seem much surprised by the zero result, stating that progress is impossible unless Nagorno Karabakh itself joins the negotiations. Official Yerevan has just advised Baku to refrain from provocative acts. “Azerbaijan will suffer great losses, should it dare attack Karabakh,” the spokesman for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, Eduard Sharmazanov warned.

As to Europe, it tries to conceal disappointment with the declarative Kazan statement.

The OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronius Ažubalis, stressed the importance to continue the efforts towards reaching a comprehensive peace settlement. "I welcome the efforts in reaching common understanding on a number of issues whose resolution will help create the conditions for approval of the Basic Principles. I hope the work to address the outstanding issues will be continued, to pave the way towards resolving the conflict," he said.

International Crisis Group Europe Program Director Sabine Freizer confessed that result of the meeting was disappointing. “It would be much better if there was mutual understanding on basic principles between parties, whereas the statement says that the leaders agreed on some provisions only. This supposes that there have been some points that remained disagreed,” she said.

Which will the consequences of the failed Kazan meeting? A new war in Karabakh or start of talks anew? Will any sanctions will be imposed for the side guilty for the failure or will everything remain the same? Answers will probably be given in the near future and it will become finally clear whether no document was really signed by the Presidents in Kazan.

Marina Ananikyan / PanARMENIAN News
The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan

The conflict between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan broke out as result of the ethnic cleansing launched by the Azeri authorities in the final years of the Soviet Union. The Karabakh War was fought from 1991 (when the Nagorno Karabakh Republic was proclaimed) to 1994 (when a ceasefire was sealed by Armenia, NKR and Azerbaijan). Most of Nagorno Karabakh and a security zone consisting of 7 regions are now under control of NKR defense army. Armenia and Azerbaijan are holding peace talks mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group up till now.

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