Armenian return: would Kocharian repeat Putin's path?

October 1, 2011 - 09:19 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - Possible return of former President Robert Kocharian to politics has been one of the most debated topics recently. The latest developments in Russia, where the current President openly declared his support to Prime Minister at the next presidential race, poured oil on the flames.

In one of his recent interviews, Kocharian said that his return to politics will depend on three major factors: 1. Absence of sustainable progress and emigration growth, 2. Demand for his return and 3. His inner confidence of ability to radically improve the situation.

Judging by the above-mentioned, we can presume that the first condition for Kocharian's return is obvious and in case he wishes, the second one will become a reality as well. However, it's evident that return of Kocharian will be a harder process than return of Putin. If the latter left the presidential post to occupy the seat of Prime Minister and did not conceal his being the master of Russia, the former faces a different situation. Kocharian left the post amid bloody confrontation between the authorities and opposition that resulted in death of 10 people on March 1, 2008. According to experts, this was the main reason why Kocharian did not assume the Prime Minister's duties, as many held him responsible for the bloodshed.

Besides, Serzh Sargsyan, whose positions were stronger than Medvedev's, did not wish to have a powerful Prime Minister like Kocharian.

Rumors about Kocharian's return have pushed the ruling coalition (Republican Party of Armenia, or RPA, Orinats Yerkir party and Prosperous Armenia party) to initial a memorandum pledging support for the incumbent Sargsyan during the next elections. However, if Orinats Yerkir causes no problems to the ruling RPA and President Sargsyan, the situation with Prosperous Armenia is different, should we recall that it signed the memorandum under heavy presidential pressure.

Undoubtedly, the main opposition force - the Armenian National Congress - will spare no effort to prevent return of Kocharian, whose extremely negative attitude to ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrossian is not a secret for anyone.

However, despite obstacles, Kocharian stands a good chance to regain the presidential post, with possible support of Prosperous Armenia and ARF Dashnaktsutyun. Besides, there is powerful Armenian Diaspora, which always sympathized with the second President for his tough position on Turkey and the Armenian Genocide issue.

Besides, all remember that the socio-economic situation in Armenia considerably improved under Kocharian's rule, although it was partially conditioned by the global economy growth. An ordinary citizen will not think much of global recession that followed. He or she will remember than life was better when Kocharian was the President.

And last but not least, the Kremlin's support may also have role in Armenian presidential race, given friendly relations between Kocharian and Putin.