The idea of establishing the Moscow-Tehran-Yerevan axis doesn't seem so unattainable

PanARMENIAN.Net - "As for Iran as a participant of the Treaty on Collective Safety, we are co-operating with Iran, especially regarding the drug trafficking issues. CSTO is open and if there is any application from Iran, it would be taken into consideration. I will not say that Iran will be admitted but the application will be considered, just like application submitted from any other country," writes RIA Novosti.

The plan of the Caspian pipeline construction also speaks for the probability of the union. After Kazakhstan denied circulating oil through Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, signing the declaration between Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan may be taken as Astana's wish to revert to "an old friend", i.e. to Russia. According to the General Manager of the Council for National Strategy Valeri Khomiakov, the declaration on the construction of a common pipeline is a political decision. "Russia has prompted its Asian partners to take up the construction of the Caspian pipeline, and besides economic profits gained an extremely profitable political position weakening the US influence in the region. In fact, America cannot even object to anything, it has no right to make any statements and give its opinion on these agreements. Moreover now, when its Presidential elections are close we should not expect any foreign-policy moves from America. Russia gained freedom in carrying negotiations with the USA, got hold of new arguments in our bilateral negotiations, for instance deploying AMB systems in Eastern Europe. These agreements are one of the most important achievements in the foreign-policy implemented by Putin," an expert from "Rossiiskaya Gazeta" announced.

Most of the experts also believe that at the present time Russia has in fact crossed out the idea of diversification of ways to supply gas to Europe. Russia, having cut off all the ways of gas supply to Europe, has maintained its role in the sphere of energy and its positions in its dialogue with the West. It is quite obvious that a serious supplier expects quite a different treatment.

At the same time the US Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman announced that Europe must diversify the sources of its energy supply, otherwise it will become even more dependent on Russia. According to Bodman the construction of the Caspian pipeline will do no good to Europe. "This will issue a challenge to the diversification of suppliers. Europe must take into consideration Russia's plans and consequently specify its reaction accordingly." The United States, European countries and China would like to gain a direct access to the Turkmen gas, the large part of which Russia gets for a lower price; Reuters mentions.

The USA will also speak against Iran's involvement in the project. Russia in fact supports Iran in its nuclear program, and now it supports Iran's probable membership in the military coalition and its wish to become a more powerful country than it is at present. For Armenia at present all these events may have a positive outcome. First of all the energy and military security of the country will be organized on a higher level, if taking into consideration the fact that Turkey has not yet been involved in the pipeline construction. However, taking into account the old traditions of the Russian-Turkish relations Turkey's involvement in the construction of the Caspian pipeline is not excluded. There is already one experience of Turkish-Russian cooperation; the "Blue Stream" project, through which the Russian gas was carried to Turkey, though not for a long time. The "Blue Stream" started to function with a three-year delay, in February of 2003, and in March Turkey stopped importing gas from Russia.

However, it should not be forgotten that Turkey gave a rather anxious response to the new project, especially because it gives some advantages to Armenia too. Time only knows how quickly all the ideas and opinions will come to life.