PanARMENIAN.Net - If the statements offering Armenia to give back territories including Lacin and Kelbadjar in exchange to the inconceivable promise to recognize the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, made by Azerbaijan and by the mediators somehow coincide with each other, then no agreement in Saint Petersburg will ever be reached. No Armenian President will ever agree with such conditions, in spite of the strong pressure both from the Co-Chairs and all the interested parties. However it should be mentioned that Azerbaijan has more key factors displaying pressure on it, than Armenia. The pressure displayed on Armenia may be expressed by the fear of blockade, war and seizure of the humanitarian aid. Baku must not forget that there is the issue of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which stretches through very unstable regions of Turkey. And the matter is not in the pipeline only. All the energy projects of Azerbaijan may be simply stopped, because Baku has no money to spend on their realization. In the country which as Aliyev assures "is simply swimming in oil", inflation level is 20% and it has tendencies to grow even more. And in this matter Turkey can't do anything either, for it has debts which are more than $200 billion, though it should be mentioned that both Baku, and Ankara are ready to spend any money to isolate Armenia.
Yet all these are just trifles. The resolution plan itself is much more important, and its details are being revealed to the public by the mediators, thus predetermining the outcomes. According to the suggested plan, a kind of peace contract is to be signed, which would ban any force implementation and would apply international sanctions against any violation, the second stage presupposes that the defense forces of Nagorno-Karabakh should leave the safe havens, i.e. 7 regions around Nagorno-Karabakh. Only the question of the status of Lacin and Kelbadjar regions, directly connecting Karabakh with Armenia, is discussed. It is supposed that after the demilitarization of the buffer zone peace forces will be situated there, refugees will be returned. After this in about 15-20 years a national referendum will be held in former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Republic where the future status of the Republic will be discussed. It is quite obvious that neither Armenia nor Karabakh will ever agree with such conditions. The mediators themselves, in spite of their optimism, are perfectly aware that this plan is unrealistic. Yet, the trial balloon has already been launched; the Co-Chairs have supposedly talked over returning the territories and are obviously waiting for the reaction from Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which didn't make them wait long. Unlike Azerbaijan, here the public opinion in crucial issues concerning the nation is always taken into account.
Another inhibitory factor in the resolution of this conflict is the absence of the Nagorno-Karabakh representative in the negotiation process. This question has been mentioned more that once, yet neither the OSCE Minsk Group, nor the conflicting parties are going to have Nagorno-Karabakh join the process. "The present format of the negotiations will not bring the conflict to its resolution. The matter which is of paramount importance now for the population of Karabakh is deciding its status. Only after that it will be possible to talk about the continuation of the negotiations", announced the President of Nagorno-Karabakh Arkadi Ghukasyan after the meeting with Miguel Angel Moratinos, so all the announcements about the "breakthrough", "window of opportunity" and "progress" carry simply diplomatic significance.