Neither of South Caucasian States Cares of Neighbors

Manvel Sargsyan::

Neither of South Caucasian States Cares of Neighbors

PanARMENIAN.Net - Supposed changes in the balance forces in the region and optimistic statements on the possible settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh problem by the end of 2006 have revealed new directions and distribution of the power vector. External factors and first of all strengthening of the U.S. and European structures in the region and Russia's retreat from the dominant positions is being observed in the region. Analyst of Kavkaz center Manvel Sargsyan comments on the situation to PanARMENIAN.Net.
How do you assess the balance of forces in the region?

In fact there are no special moves in the intention to engage the South Caucasian states into a unified new system of new quality, which is being declared both by the states of the region and the international community. In this regard efforts of individual activity are observed. Georgia tries to settle its relations with Russia with harsh methods and integrate into the European structures. The President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev put forward a program of total isolation of Armenia, hoping that he will be able to enlist support of international community. Armenia attempts to balance its relations between the West and Russia. Neither of the states of the region has time for its neighbors.

Such an individual activation strengthens the dependence of regional states from this or that foreign factors. More and more the interests of foreign powers come in contact with this or that country in the region. Compromise between the conflicting sides becomes more and more complicated. For example, the more the Armenian leadership speaks about its readiness to serious compromises in the Nagorno Karabakh issue, the more the Azeri authorities strengthen their military calls. An appetite to get all but not a part through bargaining with foreign powers occurs.

The states of the region stake not on compromise, but on exclusive foreign support for their own intentions. In this view, Azerbaijan's speaking of military solution of the conflict, which totally is put in a wider circle of necessary means, is needed to 'return the territories'. In October Ilham Aliyev stated that "if there is no progress in negotiation process any variants will be discussed, stressing it means that here Baku must think about military operation". It means that he, more precisely than earlier, pointed that military operation is the last possible step. It needs time which, in his opinion, works for Azerbaijan's favor.

What exactly did the Azeri President mean?

Ilham Aliyev has already announced of the necessity of total information, communicative, political and economic blockade of Armenia. He eyes such a program as an instrument to force Armenia to accept Azerbaijan's conditions. Aliyev's reiterates Azerbaijan's intention to press for the construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi railway bypassing Armenia as well as to establish high-level relations with all those states Armenia enjoy good and even friendly relations (for example with Iran). He also speaks of the intention to efficiently struggle against the Armenian lobby by opening consulates in the states with most active Armenian Diaspora. There are also plans to keep on pushing the Karabakh issue into the agenda of international organizations. That is to say, to fight at all fronts.

However the problems of the region are not restricted to these two states. There also exist the EU's interests, especially after the signing of the Action Plan with all of three South Caucasian states. There are separate activity lines in the South Caucasus. It is the already mentioned EU program, that is the problem of engagement of the South Caucasian states into the European Neighborhood Policy. Here I have to underline the fact of separate communication vectors between the EU and regional states. Europe also has been lured by the predilections of individual initiatives of the states of the region. There is no smell of regional integration in South Caucasus, instead tendencies of separate integration lines are observed between EU programs and the regional countries. In the current period of global changes the civilized world goes to any experiments for the sake to preserve universal stability and encourage the growth of political quality throughout the globe.

The old principles of stability ensuring work worse and worse and it is necessary to find methods to transform global order on the basis of less destructive processes to prevent appearance of different uncontrollable territories. We notice that these issues occupy bigger and bigger place in the geopolitics of Western states. The South Caucasus, in this regard, is not the biggest problem. We should not also forget about the chain of disruptiveness - Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. The Caucasian problems are more local.

Still there is one more moment - the relationship of the South Caucasian states with Russia. For example, Russia has already set a task to Armenia - make your choice. Its meaning is difficult for comprehension, not only for the people of our region but also for Russia herself. I do not think that anybody fully understands what is right, what is not. The work is going on as a habit, and the characters of reciprocal demands do not display well-shaped logic: this is the specific character of period of changes. From time to time we notice that the presidents of regional countries just do not understand how to behave, what others want from them. There is no iron logic - there are only amorphous approaches and bad knowledge of own interests.

Nagorno Karabakh has adopted the Constitution. How can it influence on the political situation in the region?

With the adoption of the Nagorno Karabakh Constitution a new factor occurred in the region, which different international bodies and Azerbaijan can use. This factor gives a lot of possibilities both to Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. The referendum can remain unrecognized, but it is not easy to ignore the fact of collective will of the people of this territory. At least the referendum is the leading law of this territory, and to qualify it as illegal is not easy. Nobody can do it - the world has not seen anything more legal than the national law. After all we can qualify as illegal all the legal acts of Azerbaijan but it makes little sense.

Nations live their life. All the others can define their attitude towards the actions of this or that nation. They can recognize their right. The other nations can also try forcefully to lead away a nation from its own way with disdain. If a nation has chosen its way it must prove to itself and all the others the effectiveness of that very way and be able to defend its choice. Up till now the NKR was able to do that: time will show if there is a will to continue that initiative. And the world always recognizes those who deserve it.
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