US Focuses on Evolutionary Change in Armenia

Ambassador Richard Hoagland is a career US diplomat and has served with distinction as the American Ambassador to Tajikistan. The long delay over his confirmation, although in large part due to the State Department's refusal to use the term Genocide, should end and the case over his coming to Armenia closed. Armenia is losing more without an American ambassador present and it is time to end this confrontation. The real conflict is with US policy and not the person.

The opening of the border is now essential for both Armenia and Turkey and Yerevan has long said that it is ready, without preconditions, to establish full and normal relations with Ankara. The problem is in Turkey and the burden or challenge is on Turkey to respond to the Armenian offer of full relations.

From the standpoint of national security the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will not bring special problems to Armenia. If Turkey becomes an EU member state by the time of opening of the border Armenia will be more secure than earlier. In general, with Turkey's accession to the EU a number of problems will be settled for Armenia. Turkey will have to open the border, weaken the positions of the General Staff and strengthen civil control over the army. More and more people in Turkey come to understand that presently Baku does its utmost to prevent the Armenian-Turkish dialogue and leave Armenia in isolation.

All aspects of normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations - opening of borders, establishment of diplomatic relations and acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide - are in Ankara's hands. All depends on the outcomes of the current "ideological revolution" in Turkey. Turkish national self-consciousness is in process of re-comprehension at present. Supporters of European integration tend to the West; Islamists are aspired to the East. Everything depends on those who will come to power after the presidential and parliamentary election. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: the Armenian Genocide recognition issue is a deadlock for Turkey from diplomatic standpoint. Armenia is right stating readiness for dialogue without preconditions. At that he considers that Turkey is held hostage by Azerbaijan and that is why cannot cooperate with all the states of the region.

The Armenian genocide issue is neither the central nor even the most important obstacle between a normalization of bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey. Its recognition is a requirement not just for Turkey's past, nor its present, but is crucial to the future of Turkey. The Karabakh issue is also not a factor, as Turkey has become prisoner of Azerbaijan and Turkish foreign policy is now limited regarding Armenia and subservient to Azerbaijani goals. Turkey realizes this and is seeking a way out from its dependence on Baku.

The US is focused largely on evolutionary change in Armenia, where political institutions matter more than political individuals, especially as there is not a strong or effective opposition in Armenia. This is the true oath to real democracy in Armenia, and not through any hope for a "revolution of fruits or flowers."