Another “Project of the Century” by Aliyev-Saakashvili

PanARMENIAN.Net - This project is certainly political, since the economic component of the project would be more than problematic. According to Stratfor, in terms of technology and logistics, this project is very ambitious, but if we speak the truth it is simply unrealistic. “The estimated cost of the project could range from two billion to five billion dollars, which is simply an unmanageable amount for these countries. Another aspect is location. The pipeline, which is to transport the Azerbaijani gas to Georgia, will be passing by Abkhazia and the restless Georgian republic, which is practically under Russian control. Russian troops are based there, and Russia, if she wishes, may well cause damage to the objects,” experts say.

However, the matter, as it is always the case in the Caucasus, is purely political. Georgia and Romania have problems with Russia, Azerbaijan has problems with Armenia, so the pipeline, if it is ever implemented, will put first Armenia, and then also Russia into a very awkward situation. And if we also add to this the “discontent” of Azerbaijan about the Russian military base in Gyumri, it becomes clear what is hidden behind the agreement of AGRI. However, the project is not approved by Turkey, which wants to use the Azeri gas herself in her projects. In essence, Baku, Tbilisi and recently also Bucharest have been trying to show their “independence” especially in regard to energy. But the situation is not that easy; the project will not work until the USA supports it. But, the thing is, that she is not in a situation to waste money on unprofitable projects. Unprofitable from the point of view of Washington, of course. This project is neither supported by Russia, who recently declared about her terminating the negotiations over the pipeline Samsun-Ceyhan. Moscow believes that the pipeline Burgas-Alexandroupolis is more attractive, at least because there has already been done rather much work and construction can be launched this year.

But all of this, let us repeat, is directed against Armenia, Russia and to some extent, also Iran. Azerbaijan, Georgia and Romania somehow forget that the possession of convenient transit and energy cannot put the country among the powers. In order to achieve this, these countries have to do something completely different. However, possessed by megalomania and trying to be “independent”, Saakashvili and Aliyev do not notice or do not want to take into account the interests of the powers, for instance, in the Caspian region. This is one of the reasons why the project cannot be implemented.

Meanwhile, Georgia has been successfully doing her part of the job directed to the isolation of Armenia, trying to cajole Azerbaijan and carry out another abstract project - establishment of the Azerbaijani-Georgian confederation. The last thing Georgia did towards realization of this project was just another closing of the Upper Lars checkpoint. Informed circles report that Tbilisi, in this way showed her protest against the fact that Armenia had voted against the Georgian resolution in the UN. And the second reason - Georgia closed the Upper Lars at the request of Turkey, which wants to exclude Armenian grapes from the Russian market. Behavior of Georgia clearly fits into the frames defined by the Georgian Foreign Ministry: Armenia has always voted against Georgia in international bodies, so we’ll give an adequate response.

Here are our neighbors, Christians, and what to speak of Muslim Turks, who are no longer one nation - two states, but already one nation - six states?