Armenia-Russia: love under duress or out of necessity?

PanARMENIAN.Net - The state visit of RF President Dmitry Medvedev is already a phenomenon out of the common. Hardly anyone pays such a visit to a country of no geopolitical value. But, on the other hand, if you want to butter up a potential ally in confrontation with the West, it's a different matter. The thing is not the agreements, which are quite serious in general, but that Russia is determined to stay in the Caucasus to the last drop. Despite the fact that over the past 200-250 years Russia has never been able to finally gain a foothold in the Caucasus, it should be noted that under this scenario Armenia has been very well blended into the age-old policy of 'carrot and stick'. Moscow floods the region with arms either consciously or perhaps out of the habit preserved since the Soviet times. Be that as it may, the agreements on the extension of the 102nd military base in Gyumri and on the construction of a new nuclear power plant very easily fit in the "carrot". It is yet unknown when the "stick" will be used and what Moscow will require from Yerevan in the foreseeable future. Apparently, we won't have to wait long: very soon Russian-Turkish economic and political interests may compel Armenia to take certain steps that may be the last in the history of this independent state. Most likely, this is the reason that Armenia is seeking the support of not only CSTO but also NATO, at least on political level. Sooner or later, Baku may launch a war and there can win only the one who will get the support of a country stronger than Russia. We have once written that for 2 centuries Russia has had no policy at all in the Caucasus, and probably she will not have. By the way, this applies to all other actors in the region, be it the U.S., Europe or China and India. Caucasus, with its different races, with diverse composition of ethnic and civilized groupings, has become in essence a second Afghanistan, but without war. At least without the war that Afghanistan has experienced for a century, if not longer.

However, the main question the answer to which political elite of Armenia wants to hear from Russia is the question of alleged supply of S-300 air defense systems to Azerbaijan. And it does not matter how much they'll explain that the S-300 is a purely defensive weapon and not a fighter-bomber and that in case of an outbreak of hostilities in Karabakh, Baku cannot use this systems, because they will have to fire at the Russian aircraft, since Armenia has no airforce. But it does not really help: all the reasons blow up - why do they sell them? Aren't we friends?...

In fact, more serious is the agreement on construction of a new nuclear power plant. It is what Armenia and the entire region really need. As for the extension of the 102nd military base in Gyumri – you have to pay for everything. And if the country itself is not able to guarantee its security (and in our case the reasons are quite objective), it has to bet on the Russian military. In this case, they have not betrayed yet and hopefully will not betray in the future. Moreover, Russia, in principle, does not need the opening of Russian-Turkish border. The situation is much calmer now.