Combined exercises in Nagorno-Karabakh proved to be a cold douche for Ilham Aliyev

Every attempt of Baku to move the negotiation process from the OSCE into any other international structure is doomed to failure.

Ilham Aliyev, following the old Russian tradition, started on a merry note, but finished on a sad one. In principle, this is what was to be expected. The combined exercises in Nagorno-Karabakh proved to be exactly the cold douche, so necessary for the Aliyev clan to recover and think a little, before threatening by war. It turns out that it was only necessary to call a spade a spade and to retell Aliyev Jr. the defeats of his father.

PanARMENIAN.Net - The elections, too, had their impact on reducing the militaristic rhetoric of Azerbaijan, after which the authorities of Azerbaijan do not need to pump up the situation and call for “liberation of lands”. Somehow or other the elections were rigged. This time there were no clashes and fights; the party United Azerbaijan is at the helm, as before. So, one can forget about Karabakh for a while, especially since there are more important issues on the agenda: the territorial division of the Caspian Sea, the summits of NATO and the OSCE.

The Caspian Sea was sorted out quickly, and, we believe, the Russian President is to be given the credit for it. A security cooperation agreement was signed and a Joint Statement of the Presidents was made in Baku. Nothing more; although behind the negotiation scenes many problems were touched. But, apparently, the parties were reluctant to make public all the disputed issues, ranging from fishing quotas to exploitation of oil. Fish and oil are the main exports for the four out of five countries pretending to the Caspian Sea, and controversies are inevitable, especially given the position of Baku, which holds the firm belief that she is the only one enjoying “special rights” on the Caspian riches. Ilham Aliyev’s stance is understandable: reducing the share of Azerbaijan would hit the family in their pockets, which would negatively affect the future of his son, the future president of Azerbaijan. It’s true that not so soon could Heydar Jr. become head of state and his “election” would not be so obvious. At one time late Heydar Aliyev did not sign the agreement on Karabakh in Key West, motivating his deed by his unwillingness to endanger the future of his son. And if we should believe diplomatic leaks, the agreement was on the independent status of Nagorno-Karabakh. The same thing may happen to Ilham.

With regard to the forthcoming summits of NATO and the OSCE, it seems to us that almost nothing will be discussed on the Karabakh conflict in Lisbon for the simple reason that this issue is outside the competence of the Alliance; and all the attempts of Baku to move the negotiation process from the OSCE into any other international structure are doomed to failure. One does not have to graduate from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations in order to understand this. But Aliyev behaves as his father taught – if you keep repeating something for long, it might happen. Alas, it does not...

As for Astana, another, perhaps a little tougher, statement will be made there. Anyway, all the calls and requests of the OSCE remain on paper, and no mechanism will work until Azerbaijan withdraws her snipers from the firing line. Most likely, this will be one of the topics of the talks in Astana.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan / PanARMENIAN News
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