Turkish public opinion and Azeri factor hamper opening of Armenian-Turkish border

As you know, on 19 November by a majority vote MERCOSUR bloc members - Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil and Uruguay - approved the Human Rights Committee's decision to recognize the Armenian Genocide. The parliament calls on the states which haven't recognized the Genocide yet to make the decision. MERCOSUR's measure proves that the Armenian factor is gaining political weight in South America. I should mention that the motion was initiated by Uruguay, the first state that recognized the Armenian Genocide in 1965. The statement was signed by parliaments of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. Venezuela is expected to join them. Chile, a very likely candidate for MERCOSUR membership, made a similar decision earlier. As to Paraguay, recognition of Genocide is a unique phenomenon, since there is no Armenian community living in this country. This move is of strategic importance for Armenia's foreign policy and I welcome Robert Kocharian's edict on establishing Embassy of Brazil.

We should not forget that the United States experiences shaky political situation at the moment and such a resolution can't be adopted at once. Majority of Congressmen recognized the Armenian Genocide as a historical fact, however, vote would be inexpedient now. In general with adopting the resolution, the U.S. will contribute to consolidation of Armenia's state defense.

Situation in Middle East and Iraq is also tensed. The problem is not Kurdistan but in Iraq's further partition. Those who bind H.Res.106 with the Kurdish issue are deeply mistaken. Turkey would launch operations against Kurdish rebels anyway. It's quite another matter whether it will succeed. Opposition between Shiites and Sunnites is going on there.

As to Middle East, the main thing for the U.S. is not the Palestine-Israel conflict but opposition with Iran, which has a serious potential to become a regional power with its nuclear program.

Statements of the kind are first of all tools of pressure on the population, let it happen in Azerbaijan or in any other state. On the other hand, Ilham Aliyev can make such statements due to $1 billion defense budget. However, it doesn't mean that he will be allowed to deteriorate the situation. Neither the U.S. nor Russia will tolerate it. It's bluff and speculation. Azerbaijan is well armed and we should not forget about the syndrome of the defeated that reigns there. Calls for war are just meant to unite the nation.

Turkish public opinion and the Azeri factor prevent Turkey from opening the border while recognition of the Armenian Genocide may undermine legitimacy of the Kemalist state. The matter is not economy but mere politics. Armenia is too small to seek for product market in Turkey while Turkish goods can kill Armenia's economy. However, there is the European Union which demands open borders. It's noteworthy that the EU prefers the AKP to Kemalists. Nevertheless, the Armenian-Turkish border will remain closed unless Armenia stops endeavors for the Genocide recognition.