Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline works as constraint for Baku to think well before flying to arms

Resumption of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh is possible. Although, I don't think it will be a large-scale operation. Azerbaijan will make local attempts Ilham Aliyev needs for his election campaign. Azerbaijan will never succeed in real war and will have to retreat. Aliyev just has to show that he thinks about and does soothing for resolution of the problem; otherwise he will be accused of ceding Karabakh.

Nevertheless, resolution of the Nagonro Karabakh conflict is unlikely in the near future. Armenia will never make fundamental concession in the issue. Armenians should put up with the fact that there will be no progress for a long time. The world is experiencing global processes caused by the economic crisis which will probably entail U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and decline of NATO. These processes will lead to shift in geopolitical balance in the region.

As to the format of talks, no one except for Baku wants to replace the OSCE Minsk Group. "Transfer of the issue to another instance will change nothing.

Ilham Aliyev seems to be irritated at Serzh Sargsyan's victory in the presidential election. Western countries have obviously assured Aliyev that with Ter-Petrossian coming to power in Armenia, the Karabakh problem will be resolved in favor of Azerbaijan. However, it didn't happen, so much the better.

It's worth mentioning that Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline works as a constraint for Baku to think well before flying to arms. Military operations will offer Armenia the right to strike communications and the West is aware of this.

Shift of the format will do no good. All these novelties originate from Georgia. Neither of the sides in Karabakh conflict with exception for official Baku wants to change the operating format. Transfer of the problem to another instance will not help resolution.

If Russia doesn't interfere, Georgia can start and even win the war against Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Saakashvili will launch hostilities only being completely sure that Russia will stay aside. No one believed that Hitler will attack the Soviet Union but it happened. Present-day Georgia may be compared to Germany in 1939. Saakashvili may anchor hopes with GUAM or the West. But the fact is that GUAM was formed as an artificial organization pointed at Russia. Actually, subversive-terrorist war against Russian peacekeepers is going on in South Ossetia and its consequences are unpredictable.

Georgia's joining NATO will cause geopolitical division, with further split of Georgia and the entire region. It is well known that neither Abkhazia nor South Ossetia intends to join NATO and, what is more, Mikheil Saakashvili is not going to seek their consent

Disputable issues will remain even if Turkey agrees to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, under the West's pressure. Armenian Genocide recognition issue and Armenia's territorial claims as well as opening of the border will remain on the agenda of the Armenian-Turkish relations for a long period of time.

The U.S. is dependent on Israel, which pushes it to attack Iran. The strong Jewish lobby is concerned about Israel's security but not the U.S. interests. However, other forces in Washington exclude any possibility of strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. No one knows how a war can end. The U.S. is not ready for it. Moreover, the international community will not keep silent as it was in case with Iraq. The oil price is going up. True, President Bush can "make a final pas" before leaving the office but it will do no good.

Russia has always supported Iran. As to Armenia, I think these two states have much in common; they carry out constructive cooperation. Moreover, if a refinery is built in the Armenian territory, the republic will have huge economic dividends. Iran has much oil but needs refineries badly.

It was a tour to oil and gas processing countries but not to Azerbaijan only. Some issues were discussed behind closed doors while the Declaration signed by the Russian and Azerbaijani Presidents is a ceremonial event. I have already said that Azerbaijan can be Russia's strategic ally; meanwhile Armenia and Russia have a military and political tandem.