Caucasus developments meant for strengthening Turkey and Russia's security

The Nagorno Karabakh conflict should be resolved peacefully. However, parallels should not be drawn between proclamation of Kosovo's independence and recognition of Nagorno Karabakh. These are different phenomena. A new configuration has emerged: Russia's tense relations with Poland and Czechia over the installation of U.S. missile defense shield and the threat of a new cold war. Globally, resolution of conflicts would strengthen security of all regions.

As to replacement of the OSCE Minsk Group, I think Turkey can become an intermediary. This country could prove more effective that the Minsk Group itself. Co-chairs can be helpful in case both Armenia and Azerbaijan gain dividends from resolution of the problem.

Turkey is an important ally not only for Azerbaijan but also for Armenia. Although I understand that many Armenians take Turkey for an enemy, the recent visit of President Abduallh Gul signaled a possibility for reconciliation. Turkey wants energy security and needs open border with Armenia for the purpose. It's time for brave thinking. Turkey and Armenia should look into the 1915 events and start building normal relations. In this case, Russia's influence on Armenia will weaken.

The Caucasus, unlike Balkans, has had no strategic importance for the U.S. unless Clinton came to power. No matter who comes to power - Obama or McCain - the U.S. policy towards the South Caucasus will be changed.

Obama will bring progress and reduce the threat of cold war. Ex-President Bill Clinton can be appointed as presidential envoy for the South Caucasus. If McCain wins, the situation will either remain the same or will worsen. There is a theory that Saakashvili wanted to raise McCain's chances for victory. But I don't think that the Caucasus crisis can anyhow influence the U.S. election. American's have other concerns now.

New dividing lines emerged between the West and East. Attacking South Ossetia, Saakashvili knew he will lose, but he wanted to draw the international community's attention to frozen conflicts. It was a call for Russia, U.S., Turkey, NATO and EU. Under the circumstances, the governments of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia can't use frozen conflicts for their own purposes.

I can suppose the following scenario: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will not be "infected by recklessness" of his Georgian counterpart. Turkey will persuade Baku to search for new ways to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Russia will work with Armenia.

All what is happening in the South Caucasus is for strengthening of Turkey and Russia's security, which need support of the regional countries. Turkey's Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform proved formation of a new control mechanism, like the one implemented in Balkans.