No progress in Karabakh conflict

Madrid Principles have been discussed during a year and a half already but the recent presidential meeting in St. Petersburg caused severe tensions. Nevertheless, I think that the negotiation process fits the context of regional relations, with Turkey getting more isolated and with Iran developing policy towards Armenia and Azerbaijan. Under the circumstances, the conflicting sides are unlikely to register any progress.

Actually, some words or sentences were rearranged in the revised document. However, there are no drastic changes.

Talks should continue, anyway, as one of the fundamental principles of international relations since the time of the Roman Empire. Although without obvious results, the sides are willing to negotiate. We should also keep in mind that Azerbaijan is awaiting parliamentary elections, what can hamper the Karabakh process. I think that things can get moving after the elections, in November. Turkey may also intensify activity, given its aspiration to take the lead in Islamic world. Moreover, the ruling AK party will have to maintain positions before the parliamentary elections in 2011.

These processes are interrelated anyway. The principle of “two countries one nation” really works. Azerbaijan wants the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement to be parallel to Karabakh settlement.