Alan Kasayev:

With Armenia's help, Russia controls the whole region

PanARMENIAN.Net - The South Caucasus is in focus of world powers. Russia's priorities in the region include political and economic cooperation with all Caucasian states. Nevertheless, the notions 'strategic partner' and 'strategic ally' are conditioning. PanARMENIAN.Net requested Alan Kasayev, the head of RIA Novosti division for Baltic States and the CIS to comment on Russia's current role in the region.
Some Russian political scientists suppose that Moscow's key allies in the Caucasus are Georgia and Ukraine but not Armenia, which doesn't have an outlet to the sea. What does Armenia for mean Russia, actually?

I am confident that Armenia is really Russia's strategic ally. It's quite obvious that with Armenia's help, Russia keeps control over the entire region. This is strategic partnership. However, being less attractive for investors, Armenia's doesn't have enough weight in the region.

The Russian leadership builds up relations with Armenia's neighbors on the principle of mutually beneficial cooperation. As to Azerbaijan, both Russia and Azerbaijan are both sources of raw materials and business rivals. From this standpoint, relations with Azerbaijan are very important. It's one the reasons why Moscow doesn't press on Baku in the Karabakh issue. Russia has to assist Armenia in normalizing relations with neighbors. It tries to perform this mission without pressing either on Yerevan, the ally, or on reliable partners in Baku and Ankara.

Russia-Turkey relations represent no danger for Armenia. They do not develop to the prejudice of thirds states, specifically Armenia. I can even say that current Russia-Turkey relations are better than relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The euphoria is over. Istanbul doesn't eye Baku as a 'younger brother' any longer. As to transport projects bypassing Armenia, being mere political projects, they lack an economic constituent.

Is resumption of hostilities possible in Nagorno Karabakh? What assessment would you give to present-day Azerbaijan?

Resumption of military operation is unlikely within next 5 years, at least. Azerbaijan is building up an image of 'investment attractiveness', is trying to resolve problems with Iran and determine status of the Caspian Sea, whose basin includes five states, each presenting its claims. I would also like to mention that the election developments in Azerbaijan are complicated by internal instability. The Anti-Armenian propaganda and warlike rhetoric is used with a purpose to unite the nation. You should nor forget that over half of the Azerbaijani population are illiterate rural residents. On the whole, Azerbaijan is poorly developed and poorly educated country living at expense of oil income. Agriculture is not developing. There is no industry with an exception for a couple of refineries. The whole population of the country can't concentrate in the capital. So, the actively created image of an enemy is one of the elements of consolidation of the society.

How would you comment on Armenia's perspectives?

Armenia's development doesn't depend on Russia, since it's impossible to fancy Moscow pursuing anti-Armenian policy. The major task Armenia is charged with is to elaborate correct investment policy. Military industry is not operating; the enterprises transferred to Russia within Property for Debt agreement do not function over many reasons. Lacking raw materials, Armenia should make accent on education and IT. Investments in the fields will help development of the republic.
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