Iran has little to offer to dissuade Yerevan from moving ahead in talks

PanARMENIAN.Net - For the past 3 centuries, the Caucasus has been the thermometer for gauging power balances in the Iranian-Turkish- Russian triangle. Since its independence from the former Soviet Union, Azerbaijan has allied with linguistically, ethnically and culturally similar Turkey, while Armenia allied first with Russia and more recently with Iran. As regards Georgia, although it has attempted to cast its sights further afield, forging ties with the West in general, and the US in particular, it failed to escape the Russian grip, to which testify the events of summer 2008, Al Ahram Arab periodical says in an article entitled Caucasian triangles.

"Moscow has been keeping a close eye on the Turkish-Armenian negotiations. Their success would usher in the Nabucco pipeline, which would break Moscow's monopoly with regard to the overland flow of energy supplies to Europe. In addition, with the Armenian barrier removed, Turkish influence in the Caucasus would outstrip that of its Russian and Iranian rivals, as Ankara would be on good terms with all three South Caucasus republics, in contrast to Russia and Iran's good relations with only one of them, Armenia," the article says.



According the newspaper, Iran, has little to offer to dissuade Yerevan from moving ahead in its negotiations with Ankara. "It certainly cannot vie with either Moscow or Ankara in offers of military or economic aid. The most it has been able to do so far is to supply Armenia with cheap energy in exchange for Armenia's support against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan fears that Ankara is preparing to sell it out on the question of the return of Armenian occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, which has not been made a point in the Turkish-Armenian negotiations," the author stresses.



"The Iranian-Turkish-Russian interplay in the Caucasus is instructive on the dynamics of international power politics. It teaches us, above all, that national interests prevail over ideology and sectarian or ethnic allegiances in the forging or dissolution of bilateral alliances," Al Ahram reports.