80 DAYS BEFORE ELECTIONS

PanARMENIAN.Net - The 50% of the list of the candidates presented by the ''Justice'' block for participation in the proportional elections are members of the People's party headed by Demirchyan. The second is the head of the ''Republic'' party, ex-Prime Minister Aram Sarkisyan. The third one is the Head of the National-Democratic union, Vazgen Manukyan. The alliance has united nine parties that have participated in the presidential elections under the flag of Stepan Demirchyan who got 32,5% of the votes in the second round. Among them are the ''Constitutional Right'' Union, National-Democratic party, ''Socialist Armenia'' union, ''Motherland and Dignity'' party. Only the ''Heritage'' party headed by the former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovhannisyan did not enter in the block.

The electoral union created by Raffi Hovahhinsyan and named after him, will participate in the elections independently. But the leader himself will not participate, because until recently he was a US citizen and the law allows to participate in the elections only those who have had Armenian passport for 5 years.

The ''Justice'' block will have to share the oppositional electorate with the ''National Unity'' party. Its leader, Artashes Geghamyan, got about 18% of votes during the Presidential elections and now counts on the same figure. However, it should be noted that the split of the tactical union with communists and the ''Self-Determination'' union will take away some of his supporters. As expected, the former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan refrained from participation in the elections. The list of the “Armenian National Movement” party does not include the most known representatives of the former elite. However, even if they participated, it would hardly change anything because according to sociological studies, their rating continues to be very low. Regarding the nowadays authorities, they connect their hopes mainly with the Republicans and the Dashnaktsutyun party. The first candidates of both parties are people very faithful to the President: for Dashnaktsutyun it is Artashes Toumanyan, the head of the President’s apparatus, and for the Republicans the second is Serzh Sarkisyan, Secretary of the Security Council, Defense Minister. If Dashnaks, together with the Republicans, get about 40% of votes, the objectives of political authorities will be achieved.

For the formation of a Parliament majority the results of the voting in the single member constituencies, where 56 from 131 deputies will be elected, become very important. The experience shows that for the executive bodies it is easier to use their administrative resources during the majority elections. So it can be assumed that the majority of the deputies that will win in the electoral districts will become members of pro-authority factions. In the conditions of polarization of the society, creation of the so-called “third force” in the Parliament, to be controlled neither by the authorities, nor by the opposition, seems unlikely.

So, the balance of forces can be presented by the formula: 5+6+13, where 5 are the parties, who will easily overcome the 5% barrier (Republicans, Dashnaktsutyun, Orinats Yerkir, People’s Party, National Unity), 6 are the parties with certain chances for success (Communist party, the Innovated communists, Ramkavar-Azatakan, “Powerful Motherland”, “Dignity, Democracy and Motherland”, Public-liberal Union) and 13 are the parties almost without any chances.