"GASPROM" FEARS TO LOSE ARMENIA

PanARMENIAN.Net - Turkmenistan sold gas to "Gasprom" for 44 dollars per 1000 cubic meters. "Gasprom" resold the gas for 55-77 dollars covering the costs for transit through the territory of Kazakhstan. It is quite possible that at times "Gasprom" supplied Armenia with the same Turkmenian gas which we could purchase without mediators as it was done early 90s. Conditions offered by Turkmenbashi were much more favorable than those currently dictated by "Gasprom". The Russian monopolist has forced out not only foreign exporters but also Russian "Itera". Turkmenistan will be very glad to supply gas directly to Armenia but it is impossible due to communication problems. Ashgabat seeks for alternative means of export and they evidently mean that since firstly they looked quite confident in negotiations with Russians and secondly they are going to increase their gas production by 20 percents.

Turkmenistan still has only one alternative to the western route of gas transportation. That is the gas pipeline to Iran. In 2004 about five milliard cubic meters of gas were supplied through this pipeline but the diameter allows to pump one half as much again. Turkmenistan sells gas to Iran for 42 dollars, that is to say a quarter less than the price that Russians offer to their strategic partner - Armenia. For today the only way of supplying Turkmenian gas to Armenia is the northern route passing through Russia. But this situation can change after the construction of Iran - Armenia gas pipeline. The management of "Gasprom" cannot help worrying about this perspective. The emergence of an alternative to Russian gas in the region is menacing not only for the commercial interests of "Gasprom" but also the political interest of Moscow.

During the recent discussion held in the upper chamber of the Russian parliament the deputy president of "Gasprom" joint stock company Alexander Ryazanov called the authorities to sanction the participation of "Gasprom" in the construction of Iran - Armenia gas pipeline since it is the only way the keep control of the situation. "If we do not take part in the construction of Iran - Armenia gas pipeline no one knows where that gas will go", Ryazanov said. According to him the Armenian - Iranian project can compete with the "Blue stream" project on which "Gasprom" sets high hopes. At the same time Ryazanov did not ignore Armenian market which "Gasprom" can lose. But Mr. Ryazanov anyway did not state his main worry. It is known that the Russian gas monopolist is extremely worried about the possible perspective of Iranian gas pipeline extension to Ukraine through Georgia and Black Sea. The emergence of a competitor in the European gas market may have extremely undesirable consequences for "Gasprom".

It is notable that yet not long ago the management of "Gasprom" showed great caution in talking about the possibility of joining the construction of Iran - Armenia gas pipeline. In July, 2004 the same Alexander Ryazanov announced in Yerevan that the payback terms of the project are above the norms accepted by "Gasprom". "Gasprom" prefers short-term investments but the conflict between commercial and political interests are always solved in favor of political interests. As it seems the political decision has already been made since the second figure in the company confidently speaks about the necessity of joining the project. It should be noted that the technical-economical justification of the investments was finished long ago so in case of the final approval of the idea by Kremlin the involvement of "Gasprom" in the project will take just a few weeks. Maybe the only thing that can prevent that is the possible intensification of the conflict between Iran and the United States.

Artyom Yerkanyan