Military attack on Iran is unlikely to be carried out, if ever possible at all

PanARMENIAN.Net - And the matter is that one more defeat will hardly do any good to the Republicans, who have reached almost nothing over the 8 years of power. On the other hand, attacking Iran runs the risk of putting the reputation of the Great Powers to the question. It should be reminded; that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has announced more than once that his country doesn't fear the USA and that any military attack "will be punished harshly". He also announced that Washington's accusations regarding the incitements of the Iraqi population are nothing but an attempt to conceal their own failures.

"Though President George Bush said that all the options regarding Iran are still under discussion, I think that Iran is unlikely to be attacked", stated Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza to Turkish Daily News. In his turn the RF Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov after his meeting with George Bush announced that Bush's Administration had assured that the USA is not planning to unleash any war against Iran. Most probably no military attack will be carried out. If the USA wants to make some changes in the region's power balance, which is hardly believable, it must unleash the war. However, there is another and rather serious circumstance to be taken into consideration. For realizing the invasion Bush's Administration needs to have a back-up from the US Congress, which by the way speaks against Iraqi war. Last week influential congressmen - democrats notified that Bush has no privileges to declare war on Iran. True, Bush himself once spoke about regulating the controversy between the two countries in a diplomatic way, after which Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi announced that the US Congress must "make it clear that, neither the current nor any other President of the USA has any privileges to attack Iran".

However, the USA wants to make a decision on Iran nuclear program. Of course Washington doesn't have any hopes that the UN Security Council will approve such course of events, as both Russia and China, permanent members of the Security Council many a time made it clear that any resolution allowing the American Administration to declare war on Iran will be turned down. In fact Russia's and China's position leaves Washington all alone in its convictions, which may lead to the loss of the last allies, and first of all of Great Britain, which is going to withdraw its troops from Iraq and speaks against declaring war on Iran. If the US Administration decides to declare war on Iran after all, Armenia will have to face rather serious difficulties especially in the economic sphere. It may give rise to some tension from geopolitical point of view too; no one knows how the neighboring countries and first of all Azerbaijan will behave. It is the very country predicted for the role of the "fifth column" of the USA, taking into consideration 16 million ethnic Azerbaijani of the North of Iran. The anticipated military operation against Iran is fraught with the most unpredictable and rather dangerous consequences for the region and the Great Middle East. It is well known that Iran's desire to take Iraq under control is great, and Washington is not ignorant of it, and in case it gets Turkey's support in this matter, which has been talked over between the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran and Erdoghan, one may think that the events will take quite an undesirable course for the USA.