Even part of Caspian hydrocarbon resources is incommensurable with Russian supplies

PanARMENIAN.Net - It is especially incomprehensible why the Declaration on outcomes of the 4th Energy Summit says: «We note the positive experience and successful operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Novorossiysk, Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum and Turkey-Greece gas pipelines which provide efficient delivery of oil and gas to world and European markets». Fifteen states of the European Commission signed the Declaration, which in its authors' opinion can protect Europe against the energy dictate of Russia. On the eve of the summit the Azeri press actively spoke of «Russia's counteraction directed against holding the meeting», but Russia remained more than neutral and it had all the grounds for it. In spite of the falling prices on oil, even part of the Caspian hydrocarbon resources remains incommensurable with Russian supplies. Besides, the economy of Azerbaijan, despite its bright reports, is still far from real progress and, most apparently, it will never be able to catch up with that of Russia, which, on the whole, does not report rapid advance either.

If we leave aside the mandatory statements on cooperation, friendship and regional security, which, according to the Declaration authors, are usually achieved exactly through energy independence, it should be admitted that the document in essence contains nothing but common good intentions. The Declaration was joined by Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Georgia, Italy, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, the USA, Turkey, the Ukraine, Switzerland, and the European Commission.

It is noteworthy that the list excludes France, Great Britain and Germany, also Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, let alone Iran. After all, they have the richest supplies of oil and gas, not to mention that Iran holds the 4th standing in oil production and Turkmenistan is the world's second largest holder of gas reserves. The absence of Great Britain from this list seems a little strange too as the British Petroleum (BP) is the operator of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Thus, London must have its own reasons for not signing the Declaration, especially when the USA signed it. As for France and Germany, they are more oriented towards Russian gas and oil, which was proved at the EU-Russia summit in Nice.

The energy summit in Baku mostly pursued political goals, which is quite natural, since Ilham Aliyev has to once more establish himself in the eyes of his people as a president who always does what is beneficial for his country. The fact that all the documents he signed are just vain formality does not interest him at all. It is more important to assure everyone that the world can't simply do without the Caspian oil. And however strange it may be, Aliyev is able to convince some countries, among them Georgia and, sad as it may be, the USA. All the rest know the price of promises of Official Baku, and they prefer to keep silent.

However, let us return to the Declaration, which says: "We find it important to continue pursuing policies aimed at diversifying the oil and gas supply routes from the Caspian basin to world and European markets. We emphasize with satisfaction that energy projects diversifying the sources and routes of transportation of oil and natural gas, linking the vast reserves of the Caspian basin to world and European markets, provide great contribution to the further strengthening of regional cooperation, create more favorable conditions for a competitive environment and for mutual interests of energy producer, consumer and transit countries".

The definition «vast reserves of the Caspian basin» arouses great enthusiasm. The reserves of the Caspian Sea are really immense but Azerbaijan owns only 1/5 of them. It has pretensions of nearly half the reserves, and impudently abusing the indefinite status of the Caspian Sea it pumps out oil of the neighbouring states. It should also be mentioned that without the Kazakh oil the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline would not be functioning. Azerbaijan is simply in a beneficial geographical location and has managed to preserve normal relations both with the USA and Russia. However, this position is temporary and very soon Baku will have to make a choice between these two super-states. On the whole, either of the options is subject to failure and it is the extent of losses that makes difference. It may so happen that successful declarations in fact lead to political collapse, which is much more serious than any most profitable economic project.

And lastly participants of the summit agreed "to continue efforts to coordinate actions by the parties in implementing joint projects aimed at strengthening energy security in Europe, especially gas transit projects including the Turkey-Greece-Italy Gas Interconnector (TGI), Nabucco and others routes through Georgia and Turkey and other projects".

Karine Ter-Sahakyan