Initially the Nabucco pipeline project introduced in 2004 supposed delivery of gas from the Iranian deposits in the Persian Gulf. In 2006 because of the conflict over the Iranian nuclear program there was made a decision to make changes in the project so that it would be possible to deliver gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. It's an undeniable fact that in the current phase the project is purely political. It can be easily proven by casting a look at the list of consortium on the pipeline construction: OMV Gas GmbH (Austria), Botas (Turkey), Bulgargaz (Bulgaria), S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz S.A. (Romania), MOL Natural Gas Transmission Company Ltd. (Hungary), and RWE (Germany). The consortium recently raised the cost estimate for the project to about 7.9 billion euros. Around 31 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year will be transported to Europe after the Nabucco project is completed in 2013.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are intensively working on the project, bearing in mind the «Contract of the Century» - the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline that, to all appearances, did not cover the costs. Though it carries oil to Europe, the flow is not enough to bring dozens of milliard dollars' profit, which has been a favourite topic for Azerbaijan lately. The same is happening now to gas. The gas for Nabucco is first of all assumed to be received from Central Asia, and only secondly from Azerbaijan. The letter is trying to prove the whole world and first of all the USA that she is distancing herself from Russia since the great oil pipeline project has no place for the Russian gas. However, Azerbaijan has missed one point - the United States has a new administration and President Barack Obama would hardly like to listen to justifications for the European «chill». Baku should also have considered the fact that Barack Obama is determined to visit Moscow in April
The EU is not eager to make heavy investments in the project - only 250 million euros (USD330 million). Most likely, EU has decided to wait. At the Budapest summit there was adopted rather a blurred declaration with the following essence: "At the Budapest summit member-states of Nabucco project reiterated their strong commitment to the new pipeline for Europe and decided to further expand the mutually beneficial cooperation to create the necessary political, legal, economic and financial conditions for the successful and prompt realization of the Nabucco pipeline project." However, what is most important is that the issues of financing and that of defining geographical parameters of the project are not resolved yet.
In the judgment of Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Hilmi Guler, Nabucco project could not be implemented without Turkey. "It's a pity that the member-states should show hesitation about Nabucco pipeline construction. We could have begun the construction in this period of time," said Guler in Budapest.
Meanwhile, Oil Research Center Director Ilham Shaban believes Nabucco project has no concept. "It is still unclear who will sell and who will purchase the gas discussed for about five years", said Shaban during the Baku-Moscow-Tbilisi video-bridge on the topic: "Nabucco gas project: pluses and minuses for Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan." The expert noted that the majority of member-states of the above-mentioned project use little gas, while their striving is explained by an intention to gain dividends as gas transiting states. "By the way, some of the project members do not conceal their desire to implement the South Caucasus project. It proves that this project is after all a political one," Shaban noted.
It remains to be added that in case of warming relations between the USA and Iran everything is possible in the Nabucco policy - the project will almost certainly return to the initial variant, i.e. transiting Iranian gas. And Iran will then define the route. Surely, it will be a political project as it is energy that always dictates policy and not vice versa.
