February 14, 2009 - 17:37 AMT
ARTICLE
Turkey is more and more hastily leaving the influence zone of EU and USA
Any initiative by Ankara, if it is out of the scope of Azeri interests, is treated rather painfully by Baku.
Last week's central event was the historical visit of the Turkish President to Moscow. The visit was expected still back in August 2008, when because of the 'feats' of Georgia and South Ossetia Caucasus hardly avoided a war that threatened to spread into Russia and the Near East. The Russian-Turkish relations have never been strained, even at the time of the USSR when Turkey, being a NATO member, was on active trading terms with the Soviet Union.

And now when Turkey is trying to carry out an independent foreign policy, not turning back to look at the USA, it is fairly justified that Ankara and Moscow should sign a contract on strategic cooperation. Moreover, it would be mutually beneficial. During the talks there was even expressed an idea that in mutual calculations Russia and Turkey should apply to ruble and lira. It is rather difficult to estimate how realistic an offer it is, but it's a fact that Turkey is more and more hastily leaving the influence zone of the EU and the USA. As Russian Premier Vladimir Putin put it, Turkey is among their priorities in Russian foreign policy.

What consequences can this intimacy have for Armenia? Among the possible scenarios is the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border and Turkey's indirect participation in the process of regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Though, the latter can hardly be realized until Ankara refuses to lend support to Azerbaijan in this issue. By the way, any initiative by Ankara, if it is out of the scope of Azeri interests, is treated rather painfully by Baku. But how long is Turkey going to listen to Baku's opinion if there are more powerful and more reasonable players that can help to get out of the crisis and of the 200-billion outer debt. In the words of Azeri political scientist Rasim Musabekov, the current promotion of Russian-Turkish relations will drive Moscow to the idea of getting rid of the «splinter» - the political position of Armenia in the region. It is quite natural, because if the word "Armenia" sounds in any corner of the world, Baku considers it her duty to respond to it, sometimes failing to understand that all those comments and refutations are no more taken seriously, be it in Moscow or Ankara, let alone Europe and the USA.

The second event of the week was the arrival of OSCE PA Special Representative on Nagorno Karabakh and Special Envoy for Georgia Goran Lennmarker. "The right of nations to self-determination and the principle of territorial integrity fixed in the Helsinki Final Act are equal for the OSCE. Neither dominates the international law and resolution of the Karabakh conflict should base on this postulate. The sides should strike a compromise. I would like to repeat that the conflict has no military solution. The deplorable outcome of the August war in South Ossetia proved inadmissibility of the use of force. A peace agreement forms the basis of the fundamental principles. It means that solution should be found with respect for fundamental principles both in Armenia and Azerbaijan, through the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group," Mr. Lennmarker said in Yerevan and, what is pretty important, repeated his words in Baku.

As usual, Mathew Bryza holds opposite views. In an interview with the "Voice of America" Ambassador Bryza said resolution of the Karabakh conflict is not far away and that it's based on the principle of territorial integrity. "The right of nations to self-determination and inadmissibility of use of force should also be fixed in the agreement," he said.

The Israeli Parliamentary Elections are finally over, but it is still indistinct who will be the country's next premier - Netanyahu or Livni. There is still a squabble going on, trying to make it more precise who the murderer is - Turkey or Israel. As usual, the reference point is the Armenian Genocide. The closer we are to the month of April the oftener the Genocide of 1915 will be mentioned; it is a yearly necessity. The US Armenian Community believes that this year on April 24 Barack Obama will utter the word "genocide", thus putting a full stop to the 35-year-old voting in the US Congress… Hardly anything might change in the world, which could bring about a change in the Turkish-Armenian relations. Turkey knows best that Armenia is right in her insistence. And Armenians on their part realize that no Turkish government would ever voluntarily recognize itself a criminal administration. And recurring to Turkish President Abdullah Gul's visit to Moscow, let us once again mention that no one can press on Turkey in this issue: neither Russia nor the United States.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan / PanARMENIAN News