Azerbaijan fears the Russian-Turkish alliance
Not accidentally did Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US Department of State point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for transferring militants and weapons.
If active diplomacy consists in regular meetings and visits, one could say that Russia, USA and Europe are now intently watching the region. It is not surprising, however, since the desire of Europe to get rid of the energy dependence on Russia, the appearance of Turkey claiming to the status of a serious regional power in the light of the continuous disagreements of world powers with Iran, and the illusive hopes for signing the Armenian-Turkish agreement make the arising situation even more intriguing.
Appointment of Ahmet Davutoglu, Erdogan's chief foreign policy advisor, as foreign minister, replacing Ali Babacan also indicates the seriousness of Turkey's intentions to seize the opportunity and gain a foothold in the region, because nothing comes of the EU yet. Davutoglu has already stated that Turkey should play a more dynamic role in the Near East and the Balkans, "but her relations with the West will remain her foreign policy priorities".
"Turkey is not a country to just react to crises, it must effectively prevent them. It concerns the role of Turkey in NATO, intermediary efforts between Israel and Arab countries and settlement of conflicts in the Caucasus," underlined Davutoglu, adding that the European Union and NATO are the most important components in the policy of establishing a balance between security and stability. As a matter of principle, Ali Babacan cannot be considered a bad foreign minister, but Erdogan needed a more serious diplomat and not an economist like the ex-minister. Nevertheless, Babacan remained in the Ministry as Deputy Minister for Economy. Quite possibly he will again be a negotiator between Turkey and the European Union together with Egemen Bağış.
Against this background the consolidation of Russian-Turkish political-economic alliance does not seem that unexpected. By the way, this alliance may not be at all directed against Armenia, as it may seem at first glance, but against Azerbaijan. Not accidentally did Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US Department of State point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for transferring militants and weapons. Russia and Turkey have always shared common interests in the Caucasus, so that Erdogan's visit is just a business meeting, in the course of which the sides will attempt to work out a certain common energy policy, directed towards strengthening the dominant role of Moscow and Ankara in the region. And it's utterly logical that under such circumstances, in spite of Ilham Aliyev's rather bold statements, Azerbaijan should not even hope for a bright future. The Nabucco project can do without the Azerbaijani gas, but it can never go without the gas from Turkmenistan or Russia. Europe is not quite pleased at such course of events, but in this way she pays for the unwillingness she displayed towards accepting Turkey into the European Union. Most likely, Brussels will pay the ransom.
As far as Armenia or her diplomatic relations with Turkey is concerned, as we have been mentioning, little depends on the sides in this matter. Without pressure, neither Turkey nor Armenia will be able to make the decision, on which the USA, Russia and the European Union insist. Moreover, it is still quite impenetrable, who after all plays first fiddle in the "project of the century" - Russia or the USA.
The USA views the progress in the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations as one of the foreign policy achievements of President Obama's hundred-day term of office. According to Michael Hammer, Official representative of the White House National Security Council, the White House "is encouraged by recent improvements in the Armenian-Turkish relations and they must be maintained by all means." In his words, Turkey is an important strategic partner and ally of the USA. "We believe that now there is a good chance to advance. That was why the US President found it necessary to visit Turkey. We hope for an open dialogue and exchange of opinions with the Turkish Government," declared the White House representative.
It is possible to foresee a certain scenario of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations development process. In an optimistic view. the boundary is opened before the football match between Turkey and Armenia, Foreign Ministers of the two countries sign a protocol about the establishment of diplomatic relations, followed by negotiations on the notorious "road map", which, by the way, no one has seen and which, as the RA MFA assures, has never been mentioned. In a pessimistic view, Armenia is forced to recognize the Kars agreement with all the resultant consequences - renunciation of the Armenian Genocide recognition and compensation for the lost homeland, abrupt weakening, not to mention fall of national security. The issue of Nagorno Karabakh drops off automatically Alas, there is not a third version possible.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
"Turkey is not a country to just react to crises, it must effectively prevent them. It concerns the role of Turkey in NATO, intermediary efforts between Israel and Arab countries and settlement of conflicts in the Caucasus," underlined Davutoglu, adding that the European Union and NATO are the most important components in the policy of establishing a balance between security and stability. As a matter of principle, Ali Babacan cannot be considered a bad foreign minister, but Erdogan needed a more serious diplomat and not an economist like the ex-minister. Nevertheless, Babacan remained in the Ministry as Deputy Minister for Economy. Quite possibly he will again be a negotiator between Turkey and the European Union together with Egemen Bağış.
Against this background the consolidation of Russian-Turkish political-economic alliance does not seem that unexpected. By the way, this alliance may not be at all directed against Armenia, as it may seem at first glance, but against Azerbaijan. Not accidentally did Russian Prosecutor General Yuri Chayka and US Department of State point to Azerbaijan as a transit country for transferring militants and weapons. Russia and Turkey have always shared common interests in the Caucasus, so that Erdogan's visit is just a business meeting, in the course of which the sides will attempt to work out a certain common energy policy, directed towards strengthening the dominant role of Moscow and Ankara in the region. And it's utterly logical that under such circumstances, in spite of Ilham Aliyev's rather bold statements, Azerbaijan should not even hope for a bright future. The Nabucco project can do without the Azerbaijani gas, but it can never go without the gas from Turkmenistan or Russia. Europe is not quite pleased at such course of events, but in this way she pays for the unwillingness she displayed towards accepting Turkey into the European Union. Most likely, Brussels will pay the ransom.
As far as Armenia or her diplomatic relations with Turkey is concerned, as we have been mentioning, little depends on the sides in this matter. Without pressure, neither Turkey nor Armenia will be able to make the decision, on which the USA, Russia and the European Union insist. Moreover, it is still quite impenetrable, who after all plays first fiddle in the "project of the century" - Russia or the USA.
The USA views the progress in the normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations as one of the foreign policy achievements of President Obama's hundred-day term of office. According to Michael Hammer, Official representative of the White House National Security Council, the White House "is encouraged by recent improvements in the Armenian-Turkish relations and they must be maintained by all means." In his words, Turkey is an important strategic partner and ally of the USA. "We believe that now there is a good chance to advance. That was why the US President found it necessary to visit Turkey. We hope for an open dialogue and exchange of opinions with the Turkish Government," declared the White House representative.
It is possible to foresee a certain scenario of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations development process. In an optimistic view. the boundary is opened before the football match between Turkey and Armenia, Foreign Ministers of the two countries sign a protocol about the establishment of diplomatic relations, followed by negotiations on the notorious "road map", which, by the way, no one has seen and which, as the RA MFA assures, has never been mentioned. In a pessimistic view, Armenia is forced to recognize the Kars agreement with all the resultant consequences - renunciation of the Armenian Genocide recognition and compensation for the lost homeland, abrupt weakening, not to mention fall of national security. The issue of Nagorno Karabakh drops off automatically Alas, there is not a third version possible.
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
