Appointment of a diplomat of such a rank shows how seriously the United States has begun to take the conflicts in the South Caucasus. Moreover, America is concerned about the level of its representation, which was not so high under the former co-chairs. We can say that with the appointment of Tina Kaidanow instead of Daniel Fried and Robert Bradtke instead of Mathew Bryza, era of the Bush family came to an end in the State Department. Not randomly do both of the diplomats know perfectly well the situation in the territory of the CIS and Europe. We hardly expect the new mediator to speak of a «breakthrough», a «window» or similar «opportunities», which were the common words of Bryza. The American diplomat will try if not to resolve the conflict, which is hardly possible in the foreseeable future, at least to minimize the threat of a military regulation.

Russia too has almost decided on a new co-chair. Most likely it will be Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, specialist on the region. According to Russian experts, the appointment of such a political «heavyweight» as Karasin will undoubtedly raise the settlement of the Karabakh conflict to a new quality level, will help to avoid hasty decisions and will prevent the rebirth of hostilities in the conflict zone. The possible appointment of Karasin is also related to the strengthening of the Armenian-Turkish relations. Experts also note that neither of the new mediators will support any of the parties: Bradtke is in no relationship with oil companies or at least nothing is known about these relationships. Thus, he is a kind of exception in this respect, as the last two American diplomats, members of the OSCE Minsk Group Steven Mann and Mathew Bryza supported the position of Baku, being related to energy projects of the former U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney and President George W. Bush. The new administration is on the right path, placing U.S. national interests at the center. These interests are not exhausted on hydrocarbons and perhaps that is why the reaction of the Azerbaijani mass media on the appointment of Bradtke and Tina Kaidanow was almost null. The thing is that the stakes on oil failed.

Things are both difficult and easy with Russia. Karasin will not take any steps against an ally like Armenia. Despite western efforts to divert Armenia from Russia, we are still Russia's ally. The stir-up in the Armenian-Turkish relations in this case served as a good reason to treat the OSCE Minsk Group more seriously, as it is not yet clear which of the powers is more interested in the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border: the United States or Russia. In words both sides welcome the opening, but in fact stances of the two sides diverge. The divergence can be seen even with a naked eye: the border in any case will be protected by Russian frontier guards, which actually suggests even tougher control over the perimeter.

The United States has a concern too: Turkey's membership in NATO and the desire to push her into the EU. Alternatively, we must admit that the administration of Barack Obama is much softer in this respect than the previous one. In fact, it turns out that in case of opening the border America's reward is going to be the provision of transit for the delivery of its forces to Afghanistan. The Nagorno-Karabakh problem in this case takes a back seat and it now requires serious and sober-minded diplomats, whose words will express exactly what they mean to say, without further explanations or references to poor translation. The change of mediators means almost nothing to the NKR: status quo remains, and new co-chairs may simply review the Madrid principles or shelve them until the Karabakh conflict is settled. The State Department has apparently returned to its old principle: not to participate in two or more conflicts simultaneously. Iraq and Afghanistan are more than enough; there will be no new war in the Caucasus for the time being.

As for the French Co-Chair Bernard Fassier, he will probably remain for some more time in the OSCE Minsk Group. After all, there must be someone to introduce the new diplomats into the course of affairs at the molecular level. However, this is no longer of any importance. At the end of the month there will begin visits of the mediators to the 'site', 'acquaintance' with the situation, and new proposals. In short, as always in this long-drawn-out conflict there lacks the principal privy - the people of Nagorno Karabakh.