More and more serious become geopolitical changes in the region and the internal political processes going on both in Turkey and in Armenia. In this respect, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is in a much inferior position than the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA). By and large, the Republican Party of Armenia is fairly strong, and yet there is no single political force in the country that could replace it. For Yerevan such state of affairs is the best, because whoever comes to power, Armenia’s attitude towards Turkey will remain unchanged. Under the first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan there were made attempts to nullify both the issue of recognition of the Armenian Genocide and perception of Turkey as an enemy or a malevolent neighbor, which constantly poses a threat to our national security. But fortunately, Levon Ter-Petrosyan was not able, or rather, was not allowed to put his plan into operation.

As for the position of AKP, Prime Minister Erdogan is undoubtedly losing popularity, and under such circumstances improving relations with Armenia could be fatal for him. Turkish opposition, discontented with the Premier’s foreign and domestic policies, could easily overthrow the unwanted Premier, by receiving assistance from the army. Coups in Turkey are not a novelty, and not once have we written about that.

Response of the international community to Serzh Sargsyan’s address was predictable. Both the United States and Europe are fed up with Turkish blackmail and her inability to behave adequately in serious matters. It wouldn’t be a great surprise if Erdogan was reminded all his recent statements, starting from empty threats issued to Israel and the Armenian illegal immigrants and ending with the outright support of Iran. It is especially the last point that is unacceptable for the world community. Unacceptable are also the attempts to drive a wedge between Armenia and the Diaspora. A few days before the recent statement of Serzh Sargsyan, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a circular note to all the embassies, in which it explained how Turkish officials and diplomats worldwide should react to the Armenian Diaspora and Genocide-related issues. Here are some of the suggestions that Turkish Foreign Ministry offered: “Contact and maintain ties with representatives of the Armenian lobby in your country of residence; invite them to your events, visit their events and try to explain Turkey’s position; in the country of residence also contact Armenian diplomats and invite them to your events; establish contacts with the NGOs of your countries of residence and try to explain the 1915 events; concentrate on the protocols signed with Armenia and remind the point of establishing a historical commission to study the genocide; highlight that the Armenian-Turkish normalization will contribute to the establishment of peace in the Caucasus; speak of the need to settle the Karabakh conflict in order to establish peace in the region. However, most “striking” was Item 3: “Representatives of the Armenian Diaspora are divided into three groups. The first group have done business on the issue of the Genocide; the second group includes people who come from Turkey and still have ties with this country and the third group is that category of people who are hostile towards Turkey. Contact the representatives of all these groups and invite them to visit Turkey.”

And all this is said and written shortly before the 95th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. However, there is one more aspect of Turkish counter-propaganda which is somehow warmly received by the Armenian side. These are the actions like “Armenians, we apologize”, Turkish visits to the Memorial of the Armenian Genocide victims. All this is done in order to make the Armenians believe that Turkey is not such an awful country and simply wants “zero” relations with neighbors. We deliberately do not mention the Karabakh conflict, as it is discussed in quite a different place, and from quite a different view.

If we are to sum up, it can be noted that Armenia, strange as it may seem, has won another round, which can be considered a preliminary finish. If Turkey anyway agrees to continue the process, it is to prove that pressure from the United States has worked. If not... well, what can't be cured must be endured. Throughout this story the position of Russia has remained obscure - Armenian side received no distinct comments from the RF Foreign Ministry, which suggests that Russian diplomacy has remained in 1915 when a whole people was wiped out because of her connivance and tacit consent. However, we would like to believe that times have changed.