August 13, 2010 - 09:24 AMT
ARTICLE
South Caucasus 2 years after the war in Georgia: Lessons of the Blitzkrieg
Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi once again faced the “bitter” reality - Russia remains the sole force exercising domination in the region.
Consequences of the five-day war that was launched in Georgia at the night of 8 August 2008, affected every South Caucasus country in its own way. Georgia, long enough playing American democracy, finally lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the Georgian leader, unable to justify the hopes of Western protege, acquired the image of an “unpredictable teenager”. The unsuccessful Georgian experience of a military solution to the self-proclaimed Abkhazia and South Ossetia can be picturesquely described as a “cold shower” for the Azerbaijani leadership, reducing the probability of launching a new military action in Karabakh for a certain period of time.

Armenia found herself in a no less difficult situation because of the August blitzkrieg. Trapped for some time in a full blockade and isolation, Armenian leadership tried to take a balanced position and not to offend either the “brotherly neighbor” or the “strategic ally”. This policy of Yerevan worked and even strengthened Armenia’s image as a constructive and reliable partner.

Despite the difference in the tasks that the August war individually set before each South Caucasus country, Yerevan, Baku and Tbilisi once again faced the “bitter” reality - Russia remains the sole force exercising domination in the region, and no democracy games, “football diplomacy” and other projects initiated by the United States can change the reality. It comes out that today the South Caucasus countries, among other things, face a common challenge – Moscow’s increasing influence and military presence in the region. Based on these realities, Azerbaijan, talking on and on about her endless energy resources, is trying to become more attractive for the West, but at the same time not to offend her northern neighbor. Georgia is bending over backwards to regain her credibility of a “small but too democratic country” and somehow break in the NATO club. As for Armenia, she smoothly pursues the Russian course, allowing the strategic ally to extend her military bases’ presence on her territory for another 49 years.

Unfortunately, no country in the region learnt the necessary lesson from the five-day war in Georgia. Azerbaijan has not ceased to arm and the risk of unleashing another armed conflict still exists. Tbilisi continues seeking Georgia’s future everywhere but in the South Caucasus, and Armenia can become a hostage in Russia’s ambitions to rebuild the Soviet Union. Regional leaders have not yet realized that prosperity and stability in the region can be achieved only if the regional projects initiated by the South Caucasus countries are not mutually exclusive, but complementary. No outside force can ever help these countries to finally overcome their problems and controversies, as they do not view the region as an independent entity. The South Caucasus remains the epicenter of the clash of the superpowers’ geopolitical interests, and Yerevan, Tbilisi and Baku are only instruments serving these interests.

Yekaterina Poghosyan / PanARMENIAN News