It is especially these guarantees that cause serious concerns, because as soon as the Armenian people are promised freedom and rights, a massacre follows. And though in the twenty-first century this kind of turn of events is rather problematic, who says that a nation can be done away with only with the help of a yataghan. There are much more civilized methods now, such as complete isolation, blockade, and finally war. Today Turkey is not the Ottoman Empire, although the thinking has remained the same: an Armenian is an enemy, so he should not exist. To be honest, majority of Armenians share a similar view about the Turks. But all this, of course, could not directly affect the breakdown of agreements over the ratification of Protocols. And the thing is not the position of Baku or the upcoming general elections in Turkey in 2011, and not even the referendum vote, by which the Islamists gain far more power than they have and, most importantly, get control over the army. It’s difficult to believe the last one, yet it is possible and as an example can serve the trial of the “Ergenekon”. It’s a dark case and it’s not excluded that the members really wanted to arrange another military coup, but they were forestalled by the Islamists.

But let us revert to the pathetic protocols that really had no future and all the excuses of both sides were called upon to make it clear to the initiators of the project, primarily to the United States, that it was a vain effort to start this project. The main obstacle, of course, is the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. It’s clear that this issue will never be decided like Obama would like it to, i.e. to say that something happened there, without calling a spade a spade. Another important factor is the Armenian Diaspora, who knows the Turks well enough not to allow any president to agree to opening of the border. That said, the open border is necessary only to a definite percentage of Armenians, who are doing a business with the neighbors. The only thing that worries these people is how to earn an extra penny...

Normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations, if ever possible, would be a unique example in the world practice. In this regard, let us note that there are no parallels, which diplomats so often like to make reference to, especially if we take as a model worthy of emulation the normalization of Franco-Germany relations. After all, France and Germany are civilized European countries and there is not that all-absorbing hatred between them, which still exists between Armenians and Turks. We must, finally, call a spade a spade: there has been too much blood shed between these two peoples for them to be able to solve all the problems and come to a peaceful existence in just a few years. It would be possible only in one case, which we’ll repeat for times out of number: only if Turkey recognizes the Armenian Genocide and reviews her foreign policy towards the Armenian Diaspora. But if it is impossible, then ratification of the Protocols is put to the back burner and can be opened no sooner than a generation later.