There is no peace treaty signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, so that Armenia is in a state of constant war with Azerbaijan. At the same time Yerevan holds a complicated relationship with Turkey, or rather does not hold any relation at all. However, there are also exercises conducted on the territory of Armenia, which capture the attention of our neighbors. All this is a matter of course. Still back in Soviet times there were large military bases concentrated in the province of Kars, which posed a threat to the Soviet Union in general and to Armenia in particular. And on Mount Ararat there used to be and there still are tracking stations. It should be noted that the level of attainment of the Turkish army is incomparably higher than that of Azerbaijan, and hardly any excesses occur during exercises. Military units stationed in Kars are designed to protect the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and one of the bases is located directly next to the oil terminal. The fears of Turkish authorities are fully justified – Kurdish population of the province may at any moment commit sabotage on the pipeline, an incident that occurred not once. Also, it must be said that Turkish military bases are located along the perimeter of the border - not only the Armenian-Turkish, but also Iranian and Azeri. Nevertheless, it is the Armenian border that has always been a subject of heightened tension. The Soviet Army specially protected this area, reasonably believing that Turkey could strike the Soviet Union from here. Even today the Armenian-Turkish border is guarded jointly by Armenian and Russian border guards.

Let us revert to military exercises “Winter 2012”. It is noteworthy that the exercises were attended by President Abdullah Gul, Deputy Prime Ministers Bülent Arınç and Beşir Atalay and National Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz. Exercises were conducted at the 3rd Army command and involved about 2,000 people and a large quantity of artillery and armored vehicles. It is quite likely that the exercises focused on developing methods to struggle against Kurdish rebels in winter conditions. Kurds that make up a majority in Kars province, like their fellow tribesman in Van, Bitlis and Diyarbakir, are willful to fight for their independence to the finish, especially that March 21 is announced by Massoud Barzani as the day of proclamation of independent Kurdistan.

It should also be noted that the army, about 1 million in number, is simply obliged to conduct exercises, especially in the current tense situation in the region associated with Syria and Iran's nuclear program. Turkey as a NATO member may have to be involved in some operations of the Alliance, if the decision thereon is taken, that is why the army should always be in commission. It’s appropriate to note that Turkey is already preparing for cross-border operations against Syria and if at the meeting of “Friends of Syria” in Tunisia such a decision is made, Turkey shall push its troops to the Syrian border. We will not speak of strikes against Northern Kurdistan in Iraq – it is a direct invasion of the territory of a sovereign country.

Turkey's military component, despite the numerous arrests of top generals, has always been the main focus of Turkish politics, both domestically and abroad. Although having lost control over the society, the army remains a strong institution, which Islamists have to reckon with. It is no accident that President Gul attended the exercise; he wanted to imply to the military that the government supported them. In fact, due to the illness of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, all power is transferred to the President and he will not fail to use it to calm down some wrathful voices in the army. But what will President Gul do when Erdogan takes up his duties again? According to the country’s constitution, Prime Minister in Turkey is the chief commander, while the President is rather a representative figure. However, in conformity with the new constitution, all power is concentrated in the hands of the President. In any case, the exercises will show several things: readiness of the army to combat in winter conditions, as well as willingness of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to change its attitude towards the Turkish General Staff, without whose sanction no action was taken until 2002.