December 15, 2006 - 15:33 AMT
INTERVIEW
Vladimir Zakharov:
NATO's Movement towards South Caucasus Arouses Tension
The signing of the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) with NATO and implementation of the Armenia-EU Action Plan gradually push Russia out of the region. The interest of the international community vividly grows despite existence of unsettled conflicts. How does Moscow eye the future of the region? Head of the center of Caucasian Studies Vladimir Zakharov comments on the situation to PanARMENIAN.Net.
The U.S., NATO and European Union have been closely watching the region recently. Is this interest conditioned by energy carriers only?
Caucasus has always been a tasty morsel for many West European states which have never bordered with the region. Everyone is aware of the significant geopolitical location of the Caucasus not only for the states bordering with it but also for the powers which currently assumed the rights to act the Justice of the Peace, to share and rule. Some analysts voice opinion that the Caucasus attracts the United States only by prospects of wide energy corridor. If we analyze the U.S. external political activity it will coincide with the functioning or planned routes of hydrocarbon transportation. This viewpoint may be proved by the recent news from Azerbaijan. Early December, on the threshold of RF Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov's visit to Baku, the Azeri authorities gave to understand they are ready for long-lasting conflict with Moscow. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev ordered the government to analyze the possibility of refusal from oil transit via Russia in response to the rise of prices for Gazprom's gas delivery to the republic. The attempt to engage Baku into the anti-Georgian bloc has failed. The peculiarities of geopolitical and geostrategic situation of the South Caucasus states played an important role during the recent period. They offer the U.S. and other leading Western European states various possibilities to realize their interests not only in economic but also in political and especially military sectors. Multivectoral competition and sometimes opposition between the states bordering with the region (Iran, Turkey) and the states situated far away from the region is observed.
The region inclination for Europe and NATO has been observed recently. Isn't it an intention to push Russia out of the region?
It became modern to speak of entry of the South Caucasian states into United Europe. Anyway Saakashvili speak of it everywhere. The same refers to Azerbaijan. Thankfully Armenia understands everything although some forces including the opposition conceal that Armenia's joining Europe is not a near and extremely ambiguous outlook taking into account the high sensitivity of the Armenian people on the problem of maintenance of national and cultural identity. The situation with NATO's movement towards the South Caucasian states in very tense currently. Formation of collective security in the Caucasus is pregnant with possibilities and obstacles at the same time. Let's take the ethnic conflicts first of all. Here the active players are not only the three South Caucasian states. The problem of the South Caucasus's security is the problem of agreements between Russia, the U.S., the European Union, Iran, Turkey and the Transcaucasian republics as well. If Washington and Moscow could offer a mechanism that would include the possibility of liquidation of ethnic conflicts in the region we could hope for creation of an efficient system of collective security in the South Caucasus However neither Russia nor the United States furnishes real and constructive proposals. Some Russian analysts affirm that Armenia and Azerbaijan are the most remote republics from NATO in the whole post-soviet space over one simple reason - the unsettlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. As we all know, an iron law functions in NATO: no single country can become a member of the Alliance until territorial disputes with neighbors are completely settled. But these are naive ideas. Azerbaijan has been for a long time cooperating with NATO, American military have completely reconstructed Azeri airdromes and local inhabitants are prohibited from approaching them. Information received during the recent several months proves that the Azeri leadership holds intense though secret talks with NATO representatives.
What about the Armenia-NATO relations?
Judging from the statements by some high rank officials of the RA government Armenia is not afraid of NATO. Armenia's membership in the CSTO is not a barrier. The CSTO regulations do not restrict the cooperation with other international structures. Moreover, on a number of issues the CSTO and NATO experience common problems and the cooperation of these two structures and separate states create extra guarantees in the South Caucasus. Last December Armenia signed the Individual Partnership Action Plan with the Alliance. The main goal of Armenia's joining the IPAP is the formation of security system meeting the demands of the 21st century. As a matter of fact, interaction within the CSTO and bilateral cooperation with Russia do not completely ensure Armenia's security against the challenges of the 21st century and expansion of interaction with NATO within the IPAP complements the absent links. Armenia's participation in the IPAP supposes conduction of periodical consultations with NATO on regional security, elaboration of the strategy and military doctrine, perfection of the defense and budget planning, interaction with NATO forces at an operative level, improvement of military education, introduction of automitized management into the Armed Forces, interdepartmental combination of sector concerning defense and struggle against terrorism. Thus, NATO's assistance to Armenia is going to be exclusively consultative.
How would you comment on the level of the Russian-Armenian relations?
Russia has failed to elaborate a strategy on the South Caucasian states and this resulted in indistinct foreign policy towards these states. I can say that Russia assumed a strange and temporizing position. Absence of precise interests in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia leads to wrong decisions. With all responsibility I say that Russia has maintained one political ally in the South Caucasus - Armenia. On one hand it gratifies but on the other hand it upsets because during the recent decade our foreign policy and economic relations led not to development of ties with Russia but worsened them. Hasty decisions of the Russian government forced the Armenian people and power structures to turn to other political players.
How does Russia eye the situation in the region?
The established status quo from the geopolitical aspect is as follows: pro-western Georgia, Azerbaijan balancing between Russia and Iran and pro-Russian Armenia, which is at the same time interestedly playing with the West. Foreign political orientation of 'continental' (without Abkhazia and Ossetia) Georgia will remain practically unchangeable during the next decades. Azerbaijan will promote its pro-Western line dependently on 'euro-integrational' and euro-atlantic succession at its 'western gate' - Georgia. Pro-Russian orientation of Armenia can be extended dependently on success or failures of the pro-western Georgian democracy. U.S.'s war against Iran or establishment of cooperation between Iran and West in the light of possible settlement of the problem of the Iranian nuclear program can correct Armenia's foreign line. Yerevan is closely connected with the CSTO and Russian companies make big purchases in Armenia but I should confess that Russian businessmen show little interest in what is happening in the country. Not economic partnership but economic indifference can be observed and Armenia slowly but faithfully turns to the West. In this case there is one efficient remedy. Russia must as soon as possible improve the situation. According to surveys, the army of adherents to all Russian has considerably reduced in Armenia recently and unfortunately this is Russia's fault first of all. There are political forces in Armenia heading for NATO and wishing not only to receive assistance but also become full member of the Alliance. But then a question arouses. What about Turkey? Are the tragic events of 1915 forgotten? If Turkey is a partner Armenia will have not only to communicate with her but also host Turkish troops. Everything can happen… Even if we suppose that NATO leadership does not hurry to accept Georgia the role of Turkey as a supervisor of the South Caucasian states will considerably grow during the process of introduction of a new military-strategic idea. It will be implemented in different ways. One of them is the creation of Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey military-strategic line (the route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum oil and pipelines as well as the planned Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railway). All these major projects bypass Armenia and represent a specially planned bypass of Russia. Formation of a new military bloc Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan is not far away. Armenia remains alone in the unequal opposition and in this view the role of Russia, as a main strategic and military partner increases.