Karabakh conflict: Sabine Freizer, knock on wood!

June 22, 2012 - 21:08 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - It has become a tradition for Sabine Freizer, Director of the European programs in the International Crisis Group (ICG) to issue comments on any development in Nagorno Karabakh process.

Moreover, she is in the habit of making exclusively pessimistic rather than realistic statements.

This time, too she forecast a war in the near future in view of the tensions at Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the contact line between Armenian-Azeri armed forces.

“Armenian -Azerbaijani clashes may grow into a war in the region, where BP Company and its partners invested USD 35 billion in energy projects. Both parties to the conflict maintain weak control of the line of contact. Large-scale hostilities may soon erupt by accident, as a consequence of retaliatory measures taken,” she said.

Probably reluctant to seem Cassandra-like and be slammed by Yerevan or Baku, Sabine Freizer hurried to add, “Neither Azerbaijan, nor Armenia intend to wage large-scale offensive in short terms. In case of renewal of hostilities, the war will by protracted due to militarily parity of the sides. Besides, the security guarantees issued by Russia and Turkey may get them involved,” she said, adding that Russia’s military base in Gyumri may extend Armenia assistance, with both countries being CSTO member-states and Azerbaijan having close ethnic, political and economic ties with Turkey

Though, nobody likes pessimistic forecasts, Ms. Freizer continues to persistently predict a war.

In vain, Ms. Freizer, you’d better touch wood.