Armenia, Ukraine face similar problems: expert

PanARMENIAN.Net - Armenia’s intention to join the Customs Union resembled the situation in Ukraine, a political analyst said.

“On the one hand, both countries are bound with Russia. On the other hand, both are strongly attracted by the European values, or at least say so. In both countries, the public opinion is divided, some standing for close cooperation with Russia and some striving for Europe. Furthermore, both countries are under pressure of Russia and European Union, each trying to tip the scale,” Mikhail Beletsky said.

According to him, unilateral orientation to the West or Russia can result in serious losses. “For Ukraine, it can be a complete collapse of economy. Armenia can face even a greater loss if Nagorno Karabakh is transferred to a hostile neighbor state. Under the circumstances, Armenia could nothing but strengthen the union with Russia, which is its own real ally in the region,” the expert said.

“As a result, Ukraine and Armenia, although still trying to pursue a two-vector policy, have chosen different paths. Ukraine preferred the European Union as the main direction, with some limited cooperation with the CIS member states while Armenia is headed for Russia. Time will show which of the decision was right,” he said, according to AnalitikaUA.net.

Armenia completed technical talks on a ‘deep and comprehensive free-trade agreement' (DCFTA) with the EU in July and it was set to be signed at a summit with the EU in late November.

In addition to a free-trade deal, Armenia has been working towards the signing of an association agreement with the EU, a framework agreement on co-operation that is seen as a first step towards political integration with the EU.

During a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan said Armenia is ready to join Customs Union, with further plans to be involved in formation of Eurasian Economic Union.

Putin supported the initiative, voicing readiness to assist Armenia in the process. He also noted that Russian Railways may invest 15 billion rubles in development of Armenia's railway network.

The Customs Union was formed in 2010 to include of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia; Kirghizia and Tajikistan later expressed willingness to join the Union.

The reaction of European officials continues to be diverse.

When in St. Petersburg to attend the G20 summit, European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said that Armenia, Moldova, and, if possible, Ukraine will hopefully sign the Association Agreement at the Vilnius Summit in November 2013.

“This is a political agreement. The Agreement would allow Armenia to go through comprehensive change both politically and economically. Therefore, after getting the news about Armenia’s plans of joining the Custom’s Union the EU expects to hear from Armenia what her further plans are. We have not received official explanations from Armenia, yet we don’t think this is a zero sum game and the same refers to Ukraine. Some benchmarks will be necessary to meet. There are some outstanding issues but we hope to see results in Vilnius. We are still engaged with these countries and still expect to sign the Association Agreements,” he said.

Meanwhile, a spokesman for Stefan Fule, the European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighborhood Policy, said that the European Parliament is not going to initialize either the Associated Agreement or the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area with Armenia, as it’s not compatible with membership in the Customs Union.