Stratfor: long frozen Karabakh conflict may be taking a significant turn

PanARMENIAN.Net - Stratfor, an American publisher and global intelligence company presents an evaluation of the situation and current developments in Nagorno Karabakh: the long frozen conflict may be taking a significant turn in the coming months, the think tank analysts suggest.

“We see growing indications that Russia and Azerbaijan may be collaborating to shake up the status quo between Azerbaijan and Armenia, with Russia readied to send in peacekeepers and stay for the long haul in a bid to tighten its grip in the region,” the analysis says.

According to Stratfor experts, Russia's strategy in the Caucasus has started to evolve after more than two decades of frozen conflict between the former Soviet states of Azerbaijan and Armenia over the tiny enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Azerbaijan and Russia have been a lot cozier than usual in recent months, raising questions in our mind whether Moscow has enticed Baku with an offer pertaining to the fiercely nationalist topic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan is fed up with negotiations mediated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and wants to see if it can put its years of military preparations to work to retake the territory.

Armenia, occupying the territory's high ground and thus holding the strategic advantage over Azerbaijan, would obviously prefer to keep the status quo. The only way Armenia would likely be forced to renegotiate terms on Nagorno-Karabakh is if hostilities resumed and Russia, Armenia's sole patron, were to play a dominant role in mediating their end,” the experts say.

The analysts go on to suggest that he Armenian rumor mill has been buzzing with speculation that Russia and Azerbaijan are developing an understanding that would have Russian peacekeepers occupy and neutralize the territory. “We are doubtful that this plan could be imposed on Armenia solely through diplomatic means,” they say.