A large-scale war is unlikely to break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, David Babayan, spokesman for the President of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic said, according to Tert.am.

On the other hand, he noted, it does not mean that Azerbaijan will stop its policy of provocations.

“A large-scale war won’t start for a number of reasons. To see into the motives behind Azerbaijan’s steps, we must better understand the state’s way of thinking, life style, values and domestic situation,” Babayan said.

One of the primary reasons for Azerbaijan no to unleash large-scale hostilities is politico-military balance between the conflicting parties. That is, Azerbaijan is unable to war against Armenia and Karabakh and win, the spokesperson noted.

The second reason is that “the superpowers, which currently serve as mediating countries, do not want war.”

“Starting a war is a most serious geopolitical act; unleashing the 1990s war was much easier because of a geopolitical vacuum in the Transcaucasia. The USSR collapse left a vacuum, with no global power being able to prevent the war. But the situation is different now because of global actors' interests in Azerbaijan, among them being the West, Russia and Iran.”

By starting a war Azerbaijan will isolate itself from the world, Babayan stated.

“That prevents Ilham Aliyev from taking practical steps, which would prove disastrous for Azerbaijan and the Aliyev clan, given the processes inside the country,” Babayan said.

One more reason why Azerbaijan will not start a war is the ruling clan’s weakening positions in Azerbaijan and, as a consequence, persecution of not only opposition members, but also government bodies – arrests and resignations in Azerbaijan’s foreign office and police.

Also, Babayan welcomed the very fact of the meeting between Presidents Serzh Sargsyan and Ilham Aliyev after a year’s break, “as they help maintain stability in the region.”

The official is sure, however, that Azerbaijan will continue “Turkey-backed” attacks on the border. This echoes the Azerbaijani Defense Minister’s statements in Turkey claiming to not be “afraid of anything as long as our big brother backs us."