U.S. Russia, EU "have leverage but no time to contain Armenia, Azerbaijan"

PanARMENIAN.Net - Russia, the United States and the EU have enough leverage to contain the two sides, but neither the time or energy or will to try and impose peace on Armenia and Azerbaijan, British journalist and writer on the Caucasus Thomas de Waal has said after a five-day escalation on the border between the two countries.

"The clashes over the last week put an end to a two-year honeymoon period ushered in by the coming to power of Armenia’s new leader, Nikol Pashinyan, after the peaceful revolution in Yerevan in 2018," de Waal said in a fresh article.

"Azerbaijan welcomed a man who was from a younger generation and, unlike his two predecessors in Armenia, not associated with the bitter conflict of 1991-4.

"In 2018, Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev agreed to de-escalate tensions on the Line of Contact. For the first time they established a telephone hotline between military commanders. Levels of violence dropped to almost zero—a sure sign that the shooting was not accidental but always had political approval from above.

"The mood was more positive than for many years. There was hope that the faltering negotiation process could resume. In January 2019 the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers even agreed “upon the necessity of taking concrete measures to prepare the populations for peace.”

"The optics were better but unfortunately nothing of substance had changed."

De Waal believes that Russia, the United States and the EU have enough leverage to contain the two sides, but neither the time or energy or will to try and impose peace on them, let alone introduce the peacekeepers needed to enforce an agreement.

"Hopefully another fragile ceasefire will be established out of this new round of fighting. Sad to say, it may be another generation will grow up before the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict gets nearer final resolution," the expert added.