Inevitable changes are fast approaching for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, as the foundations of the secessionist entity in which they have lived for the past 30 years crumble, Le Monde says in a fresh article.

Since December 12, 2022, the sole road connecting Nagorno Karabakh to Armenia - the Lachin Corridor - has been blocked by Azerbaijan. Baku tightened the blockade on June 15, 2023, banning emergency relief supplies that were carried out by Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross through the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia and the outside world. The move aggravated the shortages of food, medicine and other essential items experienced by the region’s population.

The article reads, in part:

“The prospects are bleak: either forced integration into Azerbaijan, where the population is overwhelmingly hostile to them, or departure for neighboring Armenia, which no longer has the military, economic or diplomatic means to support Nagorno-Karabakh,” the article says.

“Hunger has been driving the narrative most recently, as the blockade of the region ordered by Baku has been in place for a month. According to Marout Vanyan, an Armenian journalist based in Stepanakert, "the shelves of the town’s five supermarkets are empty, apart from those that stock alcohol. The small stores are all closed. There’s no gas and very often no electricity. Women beg for washing powder and sometimes table salt. Men barter oil for cigarettes. No one can cross into Armenia anymore. It’s complicated even for the Russian [2,000 peacekeepers]. Their helicopters fly over Stepanakert every day."

“Azerbaijan, which claims that its sovereignty over Karabakh is recognized by the entire international community, is tightening the screws, three years after its military victory over Armenian forces. Since December 2022, Baku has been progressively closing the Lachin corridor, the only crossing point between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, creating a siege that could end in a humanitarian catastrophe.

“At the end of July, Armenia tried to send humanitarian aid, but the convoy of dozens of trucks was blocked by Azerbaijan at the Lachin corridor checkpoint. In accordance with the ceasefire agreement of November 10, 2022, Baku is demanding the opening of all roads blocked by Armenia. These include the roads linking Azerbaijan to Karabakh, as well as the road linking Azerbaijan to the exclave of Nakhchivan, wedged between Armenia and Iran.

“Baku’s coercive measures come against the backdrop of a breakdown in negotiations for a comprehensive agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Baku and Yerevan agreed in May to recognize each other’s territories, but the question of the status of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh remains unresolved. For Baku, granting any autonomy to the Armenians is out of the question and the indomitable Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliev, who has been in power for 20 years, has recently said multiple times that locals will be "Azerbaijani citizens with the same rights and duties as everyone else, either living under the Azerbaijani flag, or leaving." His firm stance is paying political dividends in a context in which resentment towards Armenians remains strong. During the first Karabakh war, almost one million Azerbaijanis were brutally expelled from Armenia and Karabakh, while 350,000 Armenians were similarly driven out of Azerbaijan. The two had mixed freely before then.”