February 3, 2010 - 11:15 AMT
IMF revises up global forecast to 4 percent for 2010


The global economy, battered by two years of crisis, is recovering faster than previously anticipated, with world growth bouncing back from negative territory in 2009 to a forecast 3.9 percent this year and 4.3 percent in 2011, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest forecast.

But the recovery is proceeding at different speeds around the world, with emerging markets, led by Asia relatively vigorous, but advanced economies remaining sluggish and still dependent on government stimulus measures, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook, published on January 26.

“For the moment, the recovery is very much based on policy decisions and policy actions. The question is when does private demand come and take over. Right now it’s ok, but a year down the line, it will be a big question,” IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said in an IMF video interview.

IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn has warned that countries risk a return to recession if anti-crisis measures are withdrawn too soon.

The IMF said it had revised upwards its earlier forecast for global growth by 3/4 percentage point from the October 2009 forecast.

The IMF report said that the varying pace of recovery across countries called for a differentiated response in the unwinding of measures used to stimulate the economy and combat the crisis.

Due to the still-fragile nature of the recovery, fiscal policies need to remain supportive of economic activity in the near term, and the fiscal stimulus planned for 2010 should be implemented fully.

However, given growing concerns about fiscal sustainability, countries should also make progress in devising and communicating exit strategies.