Windows XP may be last Microsoft OS to hold majority share

PanARMENIAN.Net - Windows XP may be the last Microsoft operating system to hold a majority share, according to data from Web metrics company Net Applications.

As reported by Computerworld, at its peak, Windows XP powered more than eight out of every 10 computers worldwide. Although Windows XP's share has gradually declined since then, it still enjoys a slight majority: Last month, XP owned a 52.4% share.

That's because Microsoft has taken to a three-year development cycle. Even though the company has been mum about a ship date for Windows 8, the operating system it showed off last week, most experts have pegged its release to the fall of 2012, or three years after Windows 7's launch. With a regular cadence between upgrades, it's unlikely that any one edition of Windows will be able to duplicate XP's supremacy.

Forecasts based on Net Applications' numbers bear that out.

Using Windows 7's average increase over the last three months as a guide, Computerworld projects that the OS will top out with a 41% share in the third quarter of 2012. After that, Windows 7's usage share will begin to decline as customers upgrade to Windows 8 or start buying new PCs with the OS pre-installed.

By the third quarter of 2012, XP's share will have dropped to 38%, marking the first time the creaky OS will be behind Windows 7 in Net Applications' rankings. Meanwhile, Vista will have nearly vanished, with a share of just 4%. In this scenario, Microsoft continually repeats the Windows 7 performance, where a new edition is rapidly adopted, comes near but doesn't cross the 50 percent bar, and then is supplanted by a newer version.

That pattern could be disrupted, of course, by any number of factors, including users refusing to upgrade to a future release, as they did with Vista, which in turn would boost the share of the just-prior edition.