A political analyst, Caucasus Institute director is skeptical that Armenian National Congress (ANC) opposition bloc rallies will be able to gather 500 thousand participants to achieve change of power in Armenia.

“Only a critical mass would be able to bring about a revolution, which is far from happening at the moment,” Alexander Iskandaryan stated.

At the same time, he begged to differ from a view earlier expressed by Armenian National Movement board chairman Aram Manukyan, who stressed the importance of the quality of demonstrators, over their quantity. “To pressure the authorities, the quantity of rally participants is by far more important,” the expert noted.

“ANC's deviating position, criticising the authorities on the one hand, and engaging in a dialogue on the other, can't but impact the number of its supporters,” Iskandaryan concluded.

Representatives of the ruling coalition have held meetings since July 18, the two main issues on the agenda being conduction of extraordinary election (on ANC demand) and development of canons of political competition (as suggested by the authorities).

Problems emerged when police detained 7 young ANC activists. According to the ANC, on August 9 police officers used violence against ANC activists Tigran Arakelyan and Artak Karapetyan. Upon arrival to the site, activists Areg Gevorgyan, Sahak Muradyan, Vahagn Gevorgyan, Sargis Gevorgyan and David Kirimajyan tried to settle the dispute but were beaten as well, the ANC said. All above-mentioned were taken to a police station.

Currently, Tigran Arakelyan is kept in custody. The others were released.

On August 26, the Congress announced that it suspends the dialogue and believes Arakelyan to be a political prisoner.

As ANC leader stated at recent rally in Yerevan, refusal to release Arakelyan within the next few days will prove the incident between the police and opposition supporter to be a put-up job. According to Levon Ter-Petrossian, unless the detainee is released, ANC is ready to mobilize its supporters to force ruling authorities into conducting to snap elections.

Haykakan Zhamanak newspaper editor-in-chief Nikol Pashinyan, in turn, urged those gathered for a revolution; promising that the ruling President will resign within 24 hours, should 500 thousand people take to streets to voice their protest.