KARABAKH REFERENDUM NOT SUPPORTED IN BAKU

PanARMENIAN.Net - The source that has informed the radio station about the content of negotiations with the condition of non-disclosure of his name states that the scheme of conflict resolution is almost agreed and its approval is only a matter of a few months. According to the scheme the Armenian party agrees to return Armenian controlled security zones to Azerbaijan and Baku agrees to recognize the right of self-determination of Karabakh people. But according to the mutual agreement Karabakh people will be able to enjoy the right of self-determination not now, but after 10 or 15 years. According to the source, Azerbaijan promises to recognize the legitimacy of Karabakh status determined by the referendum which is to be conducted after the return of refugees, opening of all regional communications and restoration of an atmosphere of mutual trust. It is worth reminding that a model like this was used not long ago with the case of Southern Sudan where the North recognized the intermediate status of South and its right to conduct a referendum after 5 years.

According to the source the political leadership of Azerbaijan no longer insists on conducting a referendum on the territory of Azerbaijan. If it is so, we should accept the considerable progress in the position of Azerbaijan and their ability to take into account established international norms. In cases like this referendums are always conducted only in territories that strive to separation and not on the territories that were once a part of a united state. This was the case in Eastern Timor and twice in Quebec.

However the information leakage organized though "Svoboda" radio station has provoked serious anxiety among many in Baku. Virtually all the responds in the local press bore negative nature. The majority of Azeri political scientists suppose that the agreement to conduct referendum in Karabakh is equal to its loss because Azeris have no doubt that after 15 years Karabakh will again speak out either for joining to Armenia or for preservation of independent statehood. But nevertheless the suggested formula can be quite attractive for Aliev administration. The model in question will enable Aliev to comfortably stay in power for two presidential periods leaving the solution of the problem to the next president. It seems this is what the mediators urge him to. There is no doubt that the speed up of the efforts of Minsk group co-chairmen is connected with the upcoming parliamentary elections. Baku political scientists suppose that the mediators demand concessions from Aliev in return for shutting eyes to the atmosphere of elections. The West is said to be ready to help the ruling clan to retain power. However the political scientists think that the consent of official Baku to sign the "losing agreement" will result in a burst of public discontent and no one will save the regime in that case.

Aliev has also some other reasons that make him seriously consider the idea of conducting a referendum in Karabakh. Postponing the solution of Karabakh status issue, Baku gets though a trifling but still a chance. The hopes for economic prosperity of Azerbaijan, for the strengthening of military power and changes in the demographic situation in the region allow Aliev to think that after 15 years the situation will be more favorable for Azerbaijan. Then the outcome of voting will not be that obvious. The mediators actually give a chance to official Baku to convince the people of Karabakh that they will feel more happy and protected being a part of Azerbaijan. Here it is again appropriate to compare the situation with Sudan that is also rich in oil. Northerners offered Southerners to equally share the whole profit from oil sales though it is known that the North is much richer in oil than the South. The Muslim majority actually bribes southerners who practice Christianity and other national religions. Mediators suggest Azeris to do the same.

Aliev will hardly create illusions for himself that he will manage to "buy" the people of Karabakh with the promises for a prosperous life. But he might have another plan. The variant of conducting a referendum after 15 years is interesting in the view that within the period of 15 years it will be possible to try to change the demographic composition of the population. This is why Baku emphatically propagandizes the idea of starting the Aghdam-Stepanakert-Lachin-Goris-Nakhichevan highway. In Baku they suppose that the highway which goes right through the center of Karabakh will enable to start the process of settlement of Azeris in the surrounding territories. Besides, Aliev may also be attracted by another circumstance. As it is known in 1998 around 30 percents of the population of Karabakh were Azeris. All the descendants of Azeri refugees will claim to take part in the referendum. At the same time thousands of Armenians, having leaved Karabakh for some reasons, will not be included in the list of electors. If we take into account that natality in Azeri families is much higher than in Armenian families, we can observe a threat of parity in the number of the real Armenian and virtual Azeri population of Karabakh. Maybe Ilham Aliev seriously relies also on this factor seriously considering the issue of conducting referendum in Karabakh.