Implementation Of Kars-Akhalkalaky Project Is Still Doubtful

PanARMENIAN.Net - To all appearances the participants of the project have quite essential contradictions. If things were that serious, it would not be necessary to cancel the trilateral meeting of the ministers of transport which was planned in the beginning of June in Baku. It was expected that during the meeting in Baku parties would give final approval to the feasibility study and would decide on the funding and sign appropriate decisions. The newly aggravated contradictions do not allow to believe in the optimistic forecasts of Ilham Aliev who had promised to announce the start of works by the end of this year. In Baku and Ankara they are doing everything in order to smooth the situation. Azeri and Turkish press calls attention on the fact that ministers are nevertheless ready to meet and continue negotiations. Preliminary agreement on holding a meeting has already been reached. But now it is already clear that it will not be a final, but a regular meeting and it is still very early to talk about the final stage of works on the project. To all appearances during the second round of ministers' consultations the Georgian party will raise the issue of the necessity to announce a new tender for the feasibility study. "If the Turkish party is not able to carry out feasibility study, it can be done by Georgia", Irakly Ezugbaya recently said.

The Georgian party has notices contradictions in the calculations presented by the tender-winner Turkish "Exel Domonic" company. Company experts presented two versions of calculations - for 365 and 420 million dollars. The difference is connected with the expenses on the development of Georgian railroad infrastructures. Turks and Azeris are insisting on the point that funds necessary for the infrastructures should not be included in the main budget of the project and should be found already in the course of project implementation. It is quite evident that Ankara and Baku are striving to begin railroad construction as soon as possible in order to prevent the start of the non-functioning Kars-Gyumri railroad, exploitation of which will make Armenia a transit country. It is fairly obvious that if certain progress is observed in the opening of Armenian-Turkish border, no one will give money for the implementation of the project, which is doubtful in all senses. Georgians, noticing political implications in their partners' activities, wish to have guarantees that the project will not be stopped in case the situation in the region changes. This is why, Tbilisi demands to begin construction works only when all the expenses are approved and necessary funds are found.

Besides, Georgians have an impression (to all appearances objective) that their partners are trying to economize exactly on those sections of the project that touch with Georgia. For the construction of the 68km long section of the road running through the territory of Turkey it is planned to spend much more money than the 30km long Georgian section. Insufficient amount of money is also planned to spend for the renovation works of the 160km long railroad from Akhalkalaky to Tbilisi. What is more important is that the budget for the wheel-change station, which will be built on the border between the two countries, is too small. (As it is known, in Turkey, unlike Georgia and Azerbaijan the railroad lane is of European standard, which is much narrower than that in the countries of the former Russian empire.)

Georgians also doubt about the validity of forecasts. Turkish experts suppose that the first year's turnover of goods will be 2-3 million and will reach 8 million in the course of time. But this calculation has been done taking into consideration the non-functioning of Kars-Gyumri railroad. Thus, initiators of the project become interested in the blockade of Armenia. Otherwise profitability of the project will become doubtful. But Georgians, unlike Azeris and Turks want to have a concrete idea about what will happen when there is alternative to the built railroad. As for the too optimistic forecasts announced in Baku and Ankara, it looks like Georgians have learned to distinguish propaganda from real pragmatic forecasts.