Saakashvili may suffer the same lot as Gamsakhurdia and Shevarnadze

PanARMENIAN.Net - Everything depends on how the demonstration passes, whether there are any victims or not. On October 17 the opposition signed a manifesto on unification, which aims at Saakashvili's dethronement. The manifesto was signed by 10 oppositional unions; the Republican, the Conservative, the Labor Party, the Freedom Party, the Party "Georgia's Path", People's Party, Pan-Georgian Movement, the National Forum Party, "We Ourselves" and Kartuli Dasi".

It should be mentioned that after Georgia proclaimed its independence, no President has served the Presidential terms till the end. Perhaps, Saakashvili may also suffer the same lot as Gamsakhurdia and Shevarnadze. And this time the matter is not in the big financial inflow of the USA. Some actions of the current Georgian President are hard to explain, especially when the thing concerns its relations with Russia. The latest demarche of Tbilisi is again connected with the Russian peacekeepers in Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs made an announcement which put the whole blame of the incident on the Georgian side, which perhaps is not unreasonable. "On October 30 during the realization of one of missions on patrol of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone stated in the warrant of CIS Collective Forces a group of peacekeepers has been stopped in the region of Ganardziis-Mukhuri by Georgian spetsnaz special sub-unit. As the peacekeepers had tried to continue their way, the Georgian military men took the fire positions, and their commander Capitan T. Khurtsia prevented the advancement of the Russian APC, offended the peacekeeping forces threatening to burn the armored car and open fire on the Russian peacekeepers. The senior patrol of CIS Collective Forces ordered to arrest and disarms the Georgian soldiers, who had tried to impede the regular realization of the mission according to their mandate. It is beyond doubt that the actions of the Georgian leadership and President Saakashvili in particular mostly are determined by the internal political situation of the country. Protests of the opposition against the policy carried out by the authorities grow and the rating of the President sinks. As it often happens during the crisis in the country the leaders of the country try to solve the problems of the country by distracting people from them with demonstrations. At a time when mass meetings organized by Georgian opposition are anticipated, it is not excluded that Saakashvili will apply to more abrupt measures for creating more complications in Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetia conflict zone and further tension in Georgian-Russian relationships", says RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The opposition wants to see Georgia as a parliamentary-presidential republic: achieve prescheduled parliamentary elections, win in those elections, redesign the constitution and deprive Saakashvili from power. Such variant is quite possible taking into consideration that Washington continuously its calls for Saakashvili to show some restraints. According to the U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary Matthew Bryza, "There is nothing disapproving in the activeness of opposition's activities". It is quite possible that the Assistant Secretary in Tbilisi Daniel Fried will also say his word regarding the same issue.

The experts have mentioned more than once that in spite of the loyalty that Saakashvili enjoys, the USA has already started to look for his substitute. "Saakashvili's regime is held up by three columns; revenge towards the Abkhazia and South Ossetia, anticorruption fight and the US support," announced the political scientist Alexander Skakov. By the way, the last factor is the most important one for the electorate: the Georgians are paternalists and their need for a protector is quite big. This is why Washington's first symptom of rejecting Saakashvili will be the announcement about the postponement of Georgia's entrance to NATO. The European representatives of the alliance already speak of it, but only the announcement from the US will be the sign for the opposition. "Technical" training for the action has been held among the European diplomats as well: the opponents of Saakashvili gathered the whole diplomatic stuff in the French Embassy in Tbilisi to give information about the "current situation".

But the most important thing is money. Sponsorship has been offered by Badri Patarkatsishvili. Lately, the entrepreneur announced that he is going to pass the copyright of the oppositional TV Channel "Imedi" belonging to him to the American media-magnate Rupert Murdock. Patarkatsishvili thinks this is safer: "I want to protect the TV Channel from pressure. Journalists and the TV Channel will be more protected, if the Channel is under the US control. Murdock will be able to secure the freedom of speech." Meanwhile, according to Ruben Safrastyan, Saakashvili's regime exists exceptionally on the US financial aid. "Even if the opposition manages to depose him, nothing will ever change in Georgia," he emphasized.