Iran and the USA may come to an understanding, leaving aside the Israeli-Turkish factor

PanARMENIAN.Net - However, with the gap widening between Obama and McCain this kind of position of the Republicans is not obviously to the Americans' liking, especially with the worsening financial collapse that will definitely be followed by industrial depression. Quite naturally under such circumstances it would be simply fatal to sever relations with a country that has oil, gas and plays a considerable role among oil-producing states. Of course Israel is an important character in the American foreign policy, but most central for the US are its own interests, and they claim that no hasty decisions should be made against Iran, and, generally, against the Islamic world otherwise the policy in Iraq and Afghanistan will repeat itself.

George Bush considers, and it's quite reasonable, that solution of the problem on diplomatic relations with Iran should be suspended till better times for it not to complicate the pre-election campaign.

In its turn, Tehran is well-aware of this initiative but her position on the matter remains unclear. President of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared in New-York that he is ready to reconsider the issue of reestablishing diplomatic relations between Iran and the United States. However, these are just statements necessary for both sides.

Iran is trying hard to return to the family of civilized nations, and if it is able to normalize relations with the United States a great progress can be reported in the region. It is not a coincidence that all these talks initiated only after the August shock had a bit calmed down. Iran found herself excluded from the process of reformatting the region, which was quite undesirable for her. Meanwhile, Turkey had already managed to declare about its Caucasus Platform of Stability, whereas without Iran regional stability would be out of the question. Though, if Iran and the US renew diplomatic relations, Ankara will have to suffice itself with secondary roles, as, for a number of reasons, Iran will never agree to the second position in the region. One of the basic reasons is its maintenance of normal relations with all the countries of the region, including Turkey. Sometimes normal relations are pretentious, but Iran is not in direct confrontation even with Azerbaijan. Turkey, however, cannot be described as being in good relations with its neighbours. Under its sword of Damocles there hang the Turkish-Armenian relations. And in spite of the «hot» statements of Yerevan and Ankara on «optimism» and «progress», the relations will never cross the threshold of empty statements.

Iran can also render considerable assistance in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as it is a practically neutral country. The talks about the «brotherly Azerbaijani nation» are just empty words and what Tehran bewares most is increase of Turkish influence in the region, which may seriously intervene normal relations in the Caucasus. Georgia is not counted as a political unit as no one can foresee the outcome of confrontation between Mikhail Saakashvili and former partners. In all probability in the Caucasus, as well as in the region as a whole, there should be expected great transformations in relations between the countries and with the powers.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan