Turkey is preparing for a regional leap

PanARMENIAN.Net - It is especially Turkey that is in a rush. No matter how resolutely Barack Obama states that economy is of primary importance to him, he cannot ignore foreign policy of the country. And in its foreign policy America, first of all, has to look into relations with the Middle East, where at the will of George Bush and his team Turkey has been playing first fiddle. The US foreign policy will hardly undergo radical changes, but Turkey will definitely try to make use of them in the frames of its interests.

For the past 8 years Ankara has got used to speaking to the USA in a language of blackmail and ultimatums, using as a basic instrument of pressure the security of American forces in Iraq and the pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceihan. Supposedly if Presidential Elections in the USA were to be held in a few years' time, Turkey would be able to advance to a membership in the EU much sooner. However, out of the 33 terms of Turkey's integration into the EU only 1 was approved at the beginning of the week. The plan of Broader Middle East (BME) failed too. According to Daniel Flaherty, US State Department analyst of Russian Foreign Affairs, the BME project is presently in crisis and its future under the new Administration will be rather dark. "The project as such failed and it raised great protests in the Region. Generally, in the East and particularly in Africa we observe a growing tendency of deconstruction of the traditional and habitual for the West format of national government. This theory has already expired, but a new one is not worked out yet. We do not know so far how the problem of the so-called 'failed states' should be solved," the American expert says.

Meanwhile, representatives of the ruling Justice and Development Party of Turkey (AKP) and oppositionists consider that little will change for Turkey with the democrats coming to power. And, it should be noted, that their statements are well-grounded. "The victory of Democrat Barack Obama is the most desirable outcome of the U.S. presidential elections. Whether his presidency is successful or not will be clear in due course," declared representative of the Republican Party of Turkey Deniz Baykal. In his words, withdrawal of the U.S. troops will help to boost Turkey's regional significance. "Now, we are hiding behind America's back, but when its forces are withdrawn, our country's influence will strengthen throughout the region," Baykal emphasized.

"If Barack Obama's pro-Armenian position he demonstrated during election campaign and his sympathy for Kurds affect his political decisions during his presidency, it can seriously harm the U.S.-Turkey relations. During Obama's presidency, serious contradictions may occur in foreign policy of the United States and that of Turkey," said Turkish expert Husnu Mahalli. In his words, Turkey is concerned over some statements voiced by Obama during the pre-election campaign. His country is especially concerned over Obama's pledges to recognize the Armenian Genocide and raise the issue in Congress. According to Mahalli it gives Turkey enough bases to alarm. The expert also notes that there are some alarming signals in Obama's stand on the Kurdish problem too. "Vice President Joseph Biden holds good relations with Armenian lobby and a great sympathy for Kurds. His position can cause problems in U.S.-Turkey relations in future," Mehelli added.

Exactly on this ground has Ankara been seeking a more intimate cooperation with Moscow for the past year. The upcoming visit of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Moscow might clear up some problems concerning both Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Russian relations. Hastily refuted by Turkey's Foreign Ministry, planning a new meeting between the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey proves that stakes in the Region are considerably high.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan